Abstract:

In order to deepen understanding on internal mechanism of decision makers' exit selection behavior, a HCM was constructed by comprehensively considering psychological latent variables that affected pedestrian's exit decision-making, such as panic, safety awareness, and herd mentality. Then, it was compared with traditional model in terms of evacuation efficiency, and influence of different latent variables on the decision-making by changing weight coefficients of the variables. The results show that a certain degree of panic and herd mentality can help pedestrians choose a better route to evacuate, but excessive panic and blind obedience will reduce evacuation efficiency. Moreover, the higher environmental familiarity and safety awareness, the better evacuation there will be. However, along withe the increase of their coefficients, their influence on evacuation time will be reduced. A HCM that considers pedestrians' psychological latent variables can be more consistent with pedestrian exit selection behavior in reality, and can better reveal the nature of their decision-making in real scenes.

Key words: subway emergency evacuation, crowd evacuation simulation, psychological latent variable, hybrid choice model(HCM), exit selection behavior