Decision-making modeling of metro emergency evacuation behavior considering psychological heterogeneity

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.10.017

Abstract

Abstract: In order to explore psychological heterogeneity of evacuees and their route choice behavior mechanism, a LCM was established. Firstly, psychological latent variables were used to classify people through latent profile analysis(LPA), and optimal number of psychological latent classes was determined. Then, reliability of the classification was verified through analysis of variance. Finally, route choice preferences of people in different psychological latent classes were analyzed, and their choosing results predicted by LCM were compared with actual choices. The results demonstrate that evacuees can be divided into 5 psychological latent classes, among which the third class only tends to choose the shortest route, and preference of the fifth for the shortest one is similar to that for non-crowded route, and their strategy in choosing routes is more flexible. Compared with general models, LCM features higher accuracy in predicting choice results, and its probability is closer to reality.

Key words: psychological heterogeneity, metro emergency evacuation, route choice, latent class model (LCM), psychological latent variables

CLC Number:

X911

WANG Lixiao, YU Jiangbo, SUN Xiaohui. Decision-making modeling of metro emergency evacuation behavior considering psychological heterogeneity[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(10): 119-126.

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