Safety risk assessment of civil aviation air parking events based on DBN

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.07.1884

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore the impact and evolution of organizational and human factors on IFSD events of engine and to evaluate the risk level of airline IFSD events, a risk assessment model was built for civil aviation IFSD based on DBN. Firstly, the active and passive methods were used to identify the organizational and human factors that affected the occurrence of IFSD. Secondly, Pythagorean fuzzy DEMATEL was used to explore the causal relationship between risk factors. Then, the DBN of civil aviation IFSD was constructed based on the obtained causal relationship, and the parameters were obtained based on statistical analysis and expert experience. The occurrence probability of IFSD events was obtained through GeNle probability reasoning. Finally, the CFM56-5B engine of S Airlines was taken as an example to conduct the safety risk assessment of IFSD events. The results indicate that the probability of air stop of CFM56-5B engine of S Airlines from 2020 to 2021 is 1.260×10^-6 and 1.352×10^-6, respectively. The main reason for the change in safety risks of civil aviation IFSD events is that the decrease in "resource investment" leads to the decrease in the effectiveness of "education and training", which in turn affects "work style awareness" and "cooperation and communication".

Key words: dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN), in flight shut-down (IFSD), risk assessment, Pythagoras fuzzy, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL)

CHEN Fang, CUI Qingmin, XIANG Qianqiu. Safety risk assessment of civil aviation air parking events based on DBN[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(7): 16-23.

Figures/Tables 11

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语言术语	PFN
很低	(0.15,0.85)
低	(0.25,0.75)
中低	(0.35,0.65)
中	(0.50,0.45)
中高	(0.65,0.35)
高	(0.75,0.25)
很高	(0.85,0.15)

语言变量	概率范围	三角模糊数
极低	0.1	(0.1,0.1,0.2)
低	0.3	(0.2,0.3,0.4)
一般	0.5	(0.4,0.5,0.6)
高	0.7	(0.6,0.7,0.8)
极高	0.9	(0.8,0.9,0.9)

状态	解释	影响因子Q
a	行业最佳水平	0.1
b	优于行业平均水平	0.55
c	行业平均水平	1
d	略低于行业平均水平	4
e	远低于行业平均水平	7
f	行业最糟糕水平	10

类别	风险因素
组织风险因素 A	程序文件A₁ 培训教育A₂ 计划任务A₃ 监督A₄ 资源投入A₅ 安全文化A₆
人的风险因素 B	个人能力B₁ 生理和心理状态B₂ 作风意识B₃ 合作沟通B₄

专家	职务	工作经验/a	教育程度	权重
1	质量部副部长	12	本科	0.45
2	质量部经理	10	本科	0.28
3	大修部经理	7	硕士	0.27