Risk zoo(II): origin, evolution and prospects of risk metaphor theory

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.10.1039

Abstract

Abstract:

The risk metaphor hypothesis has slowly gained traction in risk science at the start of the 21^st Century. This paper uses literature research to comprehensively examine and sort out the historical tracing and history of risk metaphor theory, investigate the development status, and evolution of risk metaphor theory, and explore the future prospects of risk metaphor research. The findings demonstrate that risk metaphor theory has been researched extensively, and some progress has been made in three areas: risk event ontology, risk management attitude, and risk evolution mechanism metaphor. Risk metaphor theory is a cross-product of risk management science and cognitive language science, and it has been developed for more than ten years. There are still some issues, nevertheless, in that regard: the study of metaphors for high probability risk occurrences with extreme impact needs to be sufficiently in-depth, attention is not given to lower impact risk events, etc. Risk metaphor theories and models exhibit significant inconsistency and a lack of rigor in key ideas. Given a number of intricate issues, it is imperative to further develop risk metaphor theory.

Key words: risk zoo, risk metaphor, risk events, risk attitude, risk evolution

TONG Ruipeng, HU Xiangyang, YIN Xuechen, GUO Yu. Risk zoo(II): origin, evolution and prospects of risk metaphor theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(10): 8-15.

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概念模型	代表学者	主要观点
黑天鹅	TALEB ^[8]	提出“黑天鹅”,认为黑天鹅同时具备稀有性、冲击性、事后预测性3个特征
黑天鹅	AVEN ^[9]	相对于人的知识和信念而言,令人惊讶的极端事件,认为讨论黑天鹅事件时应该与现有知识水平联系起来,将黑天鹅划分为“未知的未知”和“未知的已知”
灰犀牛	WUCKER ^[10]	灰犀牛是指概率极大、冲击力极强却被忽视的风险,将人们面对灰犀牛危机时经历的5个阶段分为:否认阶段、得过且过阶段、判断性阶段、惊恐阶段和行动或崩溃阶段
灰天鹅	TALEB ^[8]	近似黑天鹅,是一种“已知的未知”。这类事件虽是罕见的,但发生概率是已知的,也是可以预期的
完美风暴	PATÉ-CORNELL ^[11]	完美风暴主要涉及罕见但已知事件组合中的不确定性和随机性
龙王	SORNETTE ^[12]	瞬时组织的存在产生极端事件,在统计学和产生机制上与不同于其他事件极端事件
龙王	FAGGINI ^[13]	由不确定因素交织放大的相互作用而产生的极端事件