中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 163-168.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.04.028

• 公共安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于FMEA与ELECTRE-III的CTCS-3风险评估研究

牟能冶 副教授, 邱忠权** 讲师   

  1. 西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院, 四川 成都 610031
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-18 修回日期:2018-03-06 出版日期:2018-04-28 发布日期:2020-09-28
  • 通讯作者: 邱忠权(1974—),男,重庆人, 博士,讲师,硕士生导师,主要从事物流规划、应急物流方面的研究。E-mail: qiuzhongquan@foxmail.com。
  • 作者简介:牟能冶(1982—),男,重庆人,博士,副教授,主要从事风险评估、应急管理、物流管理等研究。E-mail:munengye@home.swjtu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家哲学社会科学基金资助(12CJL056);中央高校基本科研业务费百人计划项目(2012X03262);成都市科技项目(2015S26013);四川省软科学项目(17RKX0582)。

Risk assessment of CTCS-3 train control system based on FMEA and ELECTRE-III

MU Nengye, QIU Zhongquan   

  1. School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 610031, China
  • Received:2018-01-18 Revised:2018-03-06 Online:2018-04-28 Published:2020-09-28

摘要: 为提升中国列车运行控制系统-3(CTCS-3)的可靠性,建立一个种新的基于失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)与消去与转换法-III(ELECTRE-III)的风险评估模型。首先利用直觉模糊数(IFNs)刻画不确定评估信息,利用ELECTRE-III构造不同潜在失效模式(PFMs)间的级别高于关系,进而将PFMs的风险水平排序;然后进行案例分析,并与传统FMEA方法、加权平均集结算子、多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)、逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)等方法对比。结果表明:基于FMEA与ELECTRE-III的CTCS-3的安全评估模型的稳健性较强,并能有效克服指标间异质性的影响。

关键词: 中国列车运行控制系统-3(CTCS-3), 失效模式与影响分析(FMEA), 直觉模糊数(IFNs), 消去与转换法-III(ELECTRE-III), 潜在失效模式(PFMs)

Abstract: For the sake of enhancing the reliability of CTCS-3 train control system, a novel risk assessment model based on FMEA and ELECTRE-III is built proposed. In the model, IFNs is utilized to characterize the uncertain information, and ELECTRE-III is introduced to construct the outranking relations between PFMs, and then the ranking of PFMs based on risk level is achieved. A case study is introduced to compare the proposed model with the traditional FMEA, the weighted arithmetic average aggregation operator, VIKOR and TOPSIS. The results demonstrate that the model built by the authors of this paper has strong robustness and can effectively overcome the influence of the heterogeneity among the indexes.

Key words: Chinese train control system-3(CTCS-3), failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs), elimination and choice expressing reality-III(ELECTRE-III), potential failure modes(PFMs)

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