面向道路交叉口的疏散人群分流模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.10.029

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 176-182.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.10.029

面向道路交叉口的疏散人群分流模型

郑霞忠^1,2 教授, 陈艳^**1, 晋良海^1,2 副教授, 张明¹, 向蕾蕾¹

1 三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌 443002
2 三峡大学安全生产标准化评审中心,湖北宜昌 443002

收稿日期:2018-07-15 修回日期:2018-09-05 出版日期:2018-10-28 发布日期:2020-11-20
通讯作者: **陈艳(1995—),女,湖北恩施人,硕士研究生,研究方向为应急管理。E-mail: 2936565465@qq.com。
作者简介:郑霞忠 (1963—),男,湖北鄂州人,博士,教授,主要从事安全科学与工程方面的研究。E-mail: zhengxz@ 126.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51878385)。

Evacuation crowd diversion model for road intersection

ZHENG Xiazhong^1,2, CHEN Yan¹, JIN Lianghai^1,2, ZHANG Ming¹, XIANG Leilei¹

1 College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China
2 Center of Standardization Evaluation for Production Safety, Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China

Received:2018-07-15 Revised:2018-09-05 Online:2018-10-28 Published:2020-11-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为合理制定道路交叉口人流分配规则,考虑道路交叉口处人群聚散特点,建立疏散人群分流模型。根据人群疏散过程,构建带容量限制的人群疏散路网;耦合后序路段实时拥挤度和最短剩余路长,计算交叉节点处的人流分配概率,分析疏散路段人流传递关系,厘定疏散路网人群移动规则;考虑路段实时拥挤程度,修正路段人流疏散速度,计算疏散路网人流疏散时间,表征分流人群疏散效率;以上海市某中学人群紧急疏散为例,对比分析疏散人群分流模型和传统基于最短路径人群疏散模型的应用效度。结果表明:与基于最短路径人群疏散时相比,在道路交叉口引导疏散人群分流使疏散时间减少13.34%,疏散效率更高,人群时空分布更加均衡,充分发挥了疏散路网的疏散能力。

关键词: 人群疏散, 道路交叉口, 路段实时拥挤度, 最短剩余路长, 分配概率

Abstract: To reasonably formulate the rules of assignment of crowed flow at the road intersection, an evacuation crowd diversion model was built, considering the characteristics of crowd aggregation and dispersion at the intersection. Based on the crowd evacuation process, a crowed evacuation network with capacity limitation was constructed. Coupled with the posterior road real-time congestion degree and the shortest residual evacuation path length, the probability of crowed flow distribution at the intersection node was calculated, and the flow transmission in the evacuation section was analyzed to reveal the rules of crowd movement in the evacuation network. The real-time congestion degree of the road section was considered, the crowed flow evacuation speed of the road section was corrected, and the evacuation time of the evacuation network was calculated to characterize the evacuation efficiency of the crowd diversion. The emergency evacuation of people from a certain a middle school in Shanghai was taken as an example, to which the evacuation crowd diversion model and the traditional crowd evacuation model models were applied. The results show that when the evacuated crowd is diverted at the road intersection, the evacuation time decreases by 13.34%, the evacuation efficiency is higher, the spatial distribution and temporal distribution of the crowd are more balanced, and the evacuation ability of the evacuation road network is fully utilized.

Key words: crowd evacuation, road intersection, road real-time congestion degree, shortest residual evacuation path length, distribution probability

中图分类号:

X928.03

郑霞忠, 陈艳, 晋良海, 张明, 向蕾蕾. 面向道路交叉口的疏散人群分流模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(10): 176-182.

ZHENG Xiazhong, CHEN Yan, JIN Lianghai, ZHANG Ming, XIANG Leilei. Evacuation crowd diversion model for road intersection[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(10): 176-182.

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面向道路交叉口的疏散人群分流模型

Evacuation crowd diversion model for road intersection

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