三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险演化研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.12.022

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 136-143.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.12.022

三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险演化研究

覃盼¹, 冯志涛², 张杰¹ 工程师, 杜超¹

1 长江三峡通航管理局工程中心,湖北宜昌 443002
2 长江三峡通航管理局指挥中心,湖北宜昌 443002

收稿日期:2018-08-20 修回日期:2018-10-11
作者简介:覃盼 (1991—),女,湖北宜昌人,硕士,助理工程师,主要从事水上交通运输工程、船舶交通流仿真等方面的研究。E-mail:1078950799@qq.com。
基金资助:
2016年交通运输部科技示范工程项目(1641STC61012)。

Research on evolution of navigation safety risk in Three Gorges dam area

QIN Pan¹, FENG Zhitao², ZHANG Jie¹, DU Chao¹

1 Engineering Center, Three Gorges Navigation Authority, Yichang Hubei 443002, China
2 Command Center, Three Gorges Navigation Authority, Yichang Hubei 443002, China

Received:2018-08-20 Revised:2018-10-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高三峡坝区船舶通航安全水平,利用实地调研和结构方程模型(SEM)等方法,研究三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险演化。分析三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险影响因素,编制测量量表,筛选指标并构建风险演化指标体系,建立理论关系模型;基于SEM方法,采用AOMS 22.0统计软件进行路径分析,检验并修正所构建的理论关系模型。结果表明:三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险由自然环境风险、航道状态风险、管理行为风险、船舶风险和船员风险5大风险直接或者间接作用演化形成,风险演化过程分为诱发、蔓延和升级3个阶段。

关键词: 三峡坝区, 船舶通航安全风险, 演化模型, 路径系数, 风险演化

Abstract: In order to improve the navigation safety level in Three Gorges dam area, the evolution process of navigation safety risk in Three Gorges dam area were studied by means of field investigation and the structural equation model (SEM)among others. Factors influencing navigation safety risk were analyzed and classified. A measuring scale was compiled. The indicators were screened and an index system of navigation safety risk evolution was established. A theoretical relationship model of risk evolution was built. The paths were analyzed by statistics software AMOS based on SEM.The results show that the navigation safety risk in the Three Gorges dam area is formed by the evolution of five major risks, such as natural environment risk, risk of channel state, risk of management behavior, ship risk and crew risk, and that the evolution process of risk is divided into three stages of inducing, spreading and upgrading.

Key words: Three Gorges dam area, navigation safety risk, evolution model, path coefficient, risk evolution

中图分类号:

X951

覃盼, 冯志涛, 张杰, 杜超. 三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险演化研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(12): 136-143.

QIN Pan, FENG Zhitao, ZHANG Jie, DU Chao. Research on evolution of navigation safety risk in Three Gorges dam area[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(12): 136-143.

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三峡坝区船舶通航安全风险演化研究

Research on evolution of navigation safety risk in Three Gorges dam area

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