风险动物园(II):风险隐喻理论的溯源、演进与前景

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.10.1039

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

21世纪初,风险隐喻理论在风险科学领域逐渐引起重视。为探究风险隐喻理论的发展现状和演变特征,运用文献研究,系统分析和梳理风险隐喻理论的历史溯源、演进脉络,并探究未来风险隐喻研究的前景。结果表明:风险隐喻理论作为风险管理科学和认知语言科学的交叉产物,发展了近10余年,学者们在风险事件本体、风险管理态度和风险演化机制3个方面开展大量研究并取得一定的进展。但同时还存在一些问题:风险隐喻理论和模型在重要的概念方面存在相当程度的不一致性和严格性缺乏;对具有极端影响的大概率风险事件隐喻的研究还不够深入;缺少对影响较低的风险事件的关注等。面对一系列复杂问题,亟需进一步丰富风险隐喻理论,以促进风险管理科学的发展。

关键词: 风险动物园, 风险隐喻, 风险事件, 风险态度, 风险演化

Abstract:

The risk metaphor hypothesis has slowly gained traction in risk science at the start of the 21^st Century. This paper uses literature research to comprehensively examine and sort out the historical tracing and history of risk metaphor theory, investigate the development status, and evolution of risk metaphor theory, and explore the future prospects of risk metaphor research. The findings demonstrate that risk metaphor theory has been researched extensively, and some progress has been made in three areas: risk event ontology, risk management attitude, and risk evolution mechanism metaphor. Risk metaphor theory is a cross-product of risk management science and cognitive language science, and it has been developed for more than ten years. There are still some issues, nevertheless, in that regard: the study of metaphors for high probability risk occurrences with extreme impact needs to be sufficiently in-depth, attention is not given to lower impact risk events, etc. Risk metaphor theories and models exhibit significant inconsistency and a lack of rigor in key ideas. Given a number of intricate issues, it is imperative to further develop risk metaphor theory.

Key words: risk zoo, risk metaphor, risk events, risk attitude, risk evolution

佟瑞鹏, 胡向阳, 尹雪晨, 郭钰. 风险动物园(II):风险隐喻理论的溯源、演进与前景[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(10): 8-15.

TONG Ruipeng, HU Xiangyang, YIN Xuechen, GUO Yu. Risk zoo(II): origin, evolution and prospects of risk metaphor theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(10): 8-15.

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概念模型	代表学者	主要观点
黑天鹅	TALEB ^[8]	提出“黑天鹅”,认为黑天鹅同时具备稀有性、冲击性、事后预测性3个特征
黑天鹅	AVEN ^[9]	相对于人的知识和信念而言,令人惊讶的极端事件,认为讨论黑天鹅事件时应该与现有知识水平联系起来,将黑天鹅划分为“未知的未知”和“未知的已知”
灰犀牛	WUCKER ^[10]	灰犀牛是指概率极大、冲击力极强却被忽视的风险,将人们面对灰犀牛危机时经历的5个阶段分为:否认阶段、得过且过阶段、判断性阶段、惊恐阶段和行动或崩溃阶段
灰天鹅	TALEB ^[8]	近似黑天鹅,是一种“已知的未知”。这类事件虽是罕见的,但发生概率是已知的,也是可以预期的
完美风暴	PATÉ-CORNELL ^[11]	完美风暴主要涉及罕见但已知事件组合中的不确定性和随机性
龙王	SORNETTE ^[12]	瞬时组织的存在产生极端事件,在统计学和产生机制上与不同于其他事件极端事件
龙王	FAGGINI ^[13]	由不确定因素交织放大的相互作用而产生的极端事件