考虑组织者风险态度的通航危险源评估模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.025

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为有效评估通航危险源的风险程度,构建考虑决策组织者风险态度的通航危险源评估模型。首先,基于国际民航组织(ICAO)推荐的危险源分类法梳理通航危险源评估指标体系;其次,针对以语义术语表征的多属性群决策(MAGDM)问题,提出变权语义幂均(VLPA)算子,并以此获取考虑决策组织者风险态度的群体评估信息;然后,综合考虑决策组织者的风险态度,阐述基于VLPA算子-距离熵的决策属性权重确定方法;最后,采用语义加权逼近理想解排序技术(TOPSIS)综合排序通航危险源的风险程度,并与传统的故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法对比分析。结果表明:组织因素和沟通人为因素是通航运行过程中需重点关注的2个危险源;与FMEA方法的一致排序结果证明所提方法的可行性,且该方法能更好地处理不同风险因子的乘积可能得到相同风险顺序数(RPN)值的情形。

关键词: 多属性群决策(MAGDM), 危险源, 风险态度, 熵权法, 逼近理想解排序技术(TOPSIS)

Abstract: In order to effectively assess the risk level of general aviation hazards, a novel general aviation hazard assessment model considering the risk attitude of decision-making moderators was proposed. Firstly, the assessment index system of general aviation hazards was constructed based on the hazard source classification approach recommended by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Then, in terms of MAGDM problem represented by linguistic term, the Variable Linguistic Power Average (VLPA) operator was put forward, with which the group assessment information of decision-making moderators' attitude towards risk was obtained. Furthermore, with the risk attitude of decision-making moderators taken into consideration, an approach to determine the weight of decision-making attribute by combining the VLPA operator and distance entropy was elaborated. Finally, the linguistic weighted TOPSIS method was utilized to rank the risk level of general aviation hazards and the results were compared with the traditional Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method. The results show that more attention should be paid to the two major hazards--organizational and communication factors in the process of general aviation operation; the ranking results consistent with FMEA method illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method which, moreover, can better deal with the situation where the product of different risk factors may obtain the same Risk Priority Number (RPN) value.

Key words: multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM), hazards, risk attitude, entropy weight method, technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS)

中图分类号:

X913.4

熊升华, 陈勇刚, 徐艺, 伍毅, 陈振颂. 考虑组织者风险态度的通航危险源评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(5): 151-158.

XIONG Shenghua, CHEN Yonggang, XU Yi, WU Yi, CHEN Zhensong. General aviation hazard assessment model with consideration of decision-making moderators' attitude towards risks[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(5): 151-158.

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