关键词: 城市韧性, 综合韧性能力, 时空动态评估模型, 传染病, 地理探测器, 多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)

Abstract:

In order to explore the action mechanism, spatial and temporal changes of urban resilience factors under the infectious diseases background, the resilience shortcomings were grasped from multiple scales. The street was taken as the basic research unit to collect spatial and statistical data to construct a spatiotemporal evaluation model. The disaster bearing, resistance and recovery ability of urban resilience were considered, and the spatial regression analysis was used to study factors that significantly drove street resilience in stages. The urban area resilience and whole city were then quantified. Wuhan was taken as an example to verify. The results show that the resilience of the main urban area is lower than that of the remote urban area, and the fluctuation range is large. The city resilience level has risen to a high level. According to the mechanism of action, local resilience is limited by urban roads, highways and regional coordination. The overall resilience is driven by the interaction of the built-up area's greening rate with the urban development and the coordination the regional organization. In terms of time and space, the overall city resilience can be dominated by street recovery and driven by other influencing factors, and the spatial distribution tends to be centralized over time.

Key words: urban resilience, comprehensive resilience capability, spatial-temporal dynamic evaluation model, infectious diseases, geographical detector, multiscale geographic weighted regression (MGWR)