飞行员应急处置能力评价模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0830

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高飞行员在紧急情境下的应急处置能力,减少民航安全事故,基于决策模型和应激理论模型,分析飞行员任务过程,从飞行员运行安全能力和飞行员储备安全能力2个方面建立飞行员应急处置能力指标体系;运用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)建立包含安全运行能力B₁和储备安全能力B₂指标体系,结合专家意见确定二级指标的隶属度,得到飞行员应急处置能力的核心指标;通过证据推理(ER)算法合成民航安全领域相关专家综合评价飞行员应急处置能力的流程,并选取某航空公司2个机组飞行员进行实证分析。研究结果表明:评价飞行员应急处置能力模型很好地降低不确定性对评价结果的影响,从而显著提高评价结果的可靠性。

关键词: 飞行员, 应急处置能力, 运行安全能力, 储备安全能力, 模糊层次分析法(FAHP), 证据推理(ER)算法

Abstract:

In order to improve pilots' emergency response capability in emergency situations and reduce civil aviation safety accidents, the pilot task process was analyzed based on the decision-making model and stress theory model. The index system of pilot emergency response capability was established from the aspects of pilot operation safety capability and pilot reserve safety capability. FAHP was used to establish the index system including safety operation capability B₁ and reserve safety capability B₂, and the membership degree of the second-level indexes was determined by combing the expert opinions. Then, the core indicators of pilot emergency response capability were obtained. The comprehensive evaluation of pilot emergency response capability by experts in the field of civil aviation safety was integrated through the ER algorithm. 2 crew pilots of an airline were selected for empirical analysis. The results of the study show that the proposed model can reduce the impact of uncertainty on evaluation results, thus significantly improving the reliability of the evaluation results.

Key words: pilots, emergency response capability, operational safety capability, reserve safety capacity, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm

中图分类号:

X949

王永刚, 马文婷. 飞行员应急处置能力评价模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(4): 199-206.

WANG Yonggang, MA Wenting. Evaluation model of pilot emergency response capability[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(4): 199-206.

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阶段	运行安全能力指标	行为指标
信息接收阶段	警觉能力	飞行员能够对屏幕、语音中字符串敏感辨别并能够从适当的来源寻求准确和充分的信息
	注意分配能力	飞行员能够将注意力合理的集中、分布和分配
	精力分配能力	飞行员能够对任务有计划性、有条理性精力上分配
	空间感知能力	飞行员能够根据数字构建飞机空间相对位置
信息处理阶段	预测统筹能力	飞行员能够根据相对位置预测空中交通状况动态信息并能够监控并识别与预计飞行航径的偏差,并采取适当措施
	评估决策能力	飞行员能够监控并评估飞机及系统的状态并能够感知、理解和管理信息,并预判其对运行的影响
	抗干扰能力	飞行员在执行任务中出现(干扰、分心、变化及故障)的情形时,进行有效的管理并恢复正常状态
反应动作阶段	知识应用能力	飞行员能够掌握飞行运行相关的理论知识以及在特殊情况下应急处置程序、应急预案等相关应急知识
反应动作阶段	程序应用和遵守规章能力	飞行员能够及时应用相关的运行规定、程序和技术以及正确操作飞机系统和相关设备

应激源	储备安全能力指标	行为指标
急性应激源	特情驾驶技能	飞行员在复杂交通情况下安全顺利完成飞行任务所具备的、精确熟练操纵飞机的一系列技术性操作要素
	身体素质水平	飞行员能够安全顺利完成飞行任务所需具备的身体素质水平
	逻辑思维能力	飞行员能够在复杂交通情况下保持清楚的的逻辑思维、判断水平
	情绪控制能力	飞行员能够有效表达、调节、管理情绪与行为
	初级评价	飞行员在遇到急性应激事件时能根据应激事件潜在的利弊分析它对个体有积极、消极还是中性的价值
	次级评价	飞行员在遇到急性应激事件时能对应激源带来的危害性做肯定识别后,随即做出有关应对策略的权衡与分析
	应变反应能力	飞行员能够在缺乏指导或程序的情况下随机应变以及能够在遇到意外事件时展现出复原力
	自我感知能力	飞行员对自身状态以及能否成功完成任务有清楚认识
慢性应激源	沟通协调能力	飞行员能够在正常和非正常情况下,通过适当的方式在操作环境中进行沟通
	专业学习能力	飞行员能够主动学习专业相关知识并予以吸收、运用能力
	组织管理能力	飞行员能够在需要时表现出主观能动性和提供指导

准则层	权重	因素层	权重
B₁	0.385 15	C₁	0.240 1
		C₂	0.195 0
		C₃	0.167 4
		C₄	0.129 9
		C₅	0.146 3
		C₆	0.121 3
		C₇	0.175 7
		C₈	0.143 1
		C₉	0.101 2
		C₁0	0.120 6
B₂	0.614 85	C₁₁	0.276 9
		C₁₂	0.254 2
		C₁₃	0.205 2
		C₁₄	0.179 4
		C₁₅	0.220 1
		C₁₆	0.268 7
		C₁₇	0.331 0
		C₁₈	0.269 5
		C₁₉	0.149 3
		C₂₀	0.125 6
		C₂₁	0.179 5

飞行员	一级指标	一级指标评价隶属度
飞行员	一级指标	优	良	中	差	不确定
1	B₁	0.225	0.690	0.061	0.000	0.024
1	B₂	0.453	0.498	0.000	0.000	0.049
2	B₁	0.752	0.201	0.026	0.000	0.020
2	B₂	0.902	0.089	0.000	0.000	0.009

隶属度	优	良	中	差	不确定
飞行员1	0.396	0.572	0.010	0.000	0.022
飞行员2	0.844	0.133	0.010	0.000	0.013