基于fsQCA的瓶装LPG事故条件变量及组态路径

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0248

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (11): 114-121.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0248

基于fsQCA的瓶装LPG事故条件变量及组态路径

孙逸林¹^,²^,³(), 郑小强¹^,²^,³^,^**()

¹ 西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都 610500
² 能源安全与低碳发展四川省哲学社会科学重点实验室,四川成都 610500
³ 西南石油大学中国能源指数研究中心,四川成都 610500

收稿日期:2025-07-05 修回日期:2025-09-05 出版日期:2025-11-28
通信作者:
^** 郑小强教授 (1981—),男,四川宜宾人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事能源安全与风险管理等方面的研究。E-mail:zhengxiaoqiang@163.com。
作者简介:
孙逸林讲师 (1996—),男,安徽合肥人,博士,讲师,主要从事复杂社会-技术系统风险分析、能源系统安全生产等方面的研究。E-mail:SYLSWPU@163.com。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目资助(24&ZD106)

Research on conditional variable and configuration paths of bottled liquefied petroleum gas accidents based on fsQCA

SUN Yilin¹^,²^,³(), ZHENG Xiaoqiang¹^,²^,³^,^**()

¹ School of Economics and Management, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China
² Sichuan Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences on Energy Security and Low-Carbon Development, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China
³ China Energy Index Research Center, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China

Received:2025-07-05 Revised:2025-09-05 Published:2025-11-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为遏制瓶装液化石油气(LPG)事故发生,保障其安全生产,首先,基于中国大陆2013—2024年间50起典型事故案例建立瓶装LPG多主体事故致因模型;然后,从案例中提炼7项核心事故诱因作为条件变量;最后,运用模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA)探究事故组态路径。结果表明:瓶装LPG事故不仅多因素并发特点鲜明,而且具有多样化的形成机制;事故共有8条组态路径,可进一步归纳为多元致灾、违规用气与设备失效耦合、违规用气、组织缺欠、违规经营、设备失效6种类型;安全生产管理体系缺欠、安全检查与隐患整改不到位、违规经营、安全监管与执法检查不力等组织致因在事故涌现与演化过程中扮演关键角色;唯一覆盖率相对最高的组态1a、组态5和组态6a应视作事故防治重点。

关键词: 模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA), 瓶装液化石油气(LPG), 城镇燃气, 条件变量, 组态路径

Abstract:

In order to curb the occurrence of bottled LPG accidents and ensure the safety production, firstly, a multi-agent accident causation model for bottled LPG was established based on 50 typical cases in mainland China from 2013 to 2024. Secondly, seven core accident causal factors were extracted from it as conditional variables. Finally, fsQCA method was applied to explore the configuration paths of accidents. The analysis results indicate that the bottled LPG accidents are not only characterized by distinctive multi-factorial complications, but also have diverse formation mechanisms. In total, there are eight configuration paths of accidents, which are further categorized into six types, namely the multiple risk coupling, coupling of illegal applied behaviors and equipment failure, illegal applied behaviors of bottled LPG, organizational deficiencies, illegal operation of bottled LPG, and equipment failure. The organizational factors, such as deficiencies in safety production management systems, inadequate safety inspections and rectification of hidden dangers, illegal operation of bottled LPG, and ineffective safety supervision and law enforcement play key roles in the emergence and evolution of accidents. The conclusion indicates that three configuration paths with relatively the highest unique coverage, configuration 1a, configuration 5, and configuration 6a, should collectively be regarded as priorities for accident prevention and control.

Key words: fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), bottled liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), urban gas, conditional variable, configuration path

中图分类号:

X928.7火灾与爆炸事故

孙逸林, 郑小强. 基于fsQCA的瓶装LPG事故条件变量及组态路径[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(11): 114-121.

SUN Yilin, ZHENG Xiaoqiang. Research on conditional variable and configuration paths of bottled liquefied petroleum gas accidents based on fsQCA[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(11): 114-121.

图/表 4

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序号	时间	地点	等级	死亡人数	受伤人数
1	2013年6 月11日	江苏苏州	重大	12	8
2	2013年7 月24日	北京	一般	2	22
3	2014年1 月18日	河北三河	一般	1	34
4	2014年9 月19日	福建厦门	较大	5	18
5	2014年11 月25日	福建厦门	较大	4	3
︙
46	2023年6 月21日	宁夏银川	特别重大	31	7
47	2023年7 月17日	上海	一般	0	1
48	2023年7 月31日	福建福州	一般	0	3
49	2024年5 月18日	贵州毕节	一般	2	4
50	2024年9 月20日	内蒙古阿荣旗	一般	2	0

条件变量	一致性	覆盖率
AB	0.548	0.680
~AB	0.452	0.560
OB	0.355	0.524
~OB	0.645	0.690
CAES	0.645	0.645
~CAES	0.355	0.579
WSMS	0.774	0.686
~WSMS	0.226	0.467
SIHM	0.516	0.727
~SIHM	0.484	0.536
OSTD	0.677	0.700
~OSTD	0.323	0.500
SSLE	0.774	0.800
~SSLE	0.226	0.350

组态路径/ 条件变量	多元致灾型		违规用气与设备失效耦合型	违规用气型	组织缺欠型	违规经营型	设备失效型
组态路径/ 条件变量	路径1a	路径1b	路径2	路径3	路径4	路径5	路径6a	路径6b
AB	○	·	●	●	⊗	⊗	●	○
OB	●	●	○	⊗	●	●	○	○
CAES	●	●	●	—	○	○	●	●
WSMS	●	●	●	●	●	○	○
SIHM	●	●	○	○	⊗	○	●	●
OSTD	●	●	—	⊗	⊗	●	⊗	●
SSLE	●	●	●	●	●	—	⊗	⊗
原始覆盖率	0.161	0.097	0.097	0.129	0.065	0.129	0.323	0.065
唯一覆盖率	0.161	0.097	0.065	0.097	0.065	0.129	0.323	0.065
一致性	1.000
总体覆盖率	0.742
总体一致性	1.000

基于fsQCA的瓶装LPG事故条件变量及组态路径

Research on conditional variable and configuration paths of bottled liquefied petroleum gas accidents based on fsQCA

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