关键词: 逆高斯随机过程, 在役管道, 失效概率, 使用寿命, 退化数据

Abstract:

In-service pipelines are subject to complex stresses, and their performance degradation over time constitutes a dynamic, time-varying stochastic process. To address the challenge that traditional deterministic functions struggle to accurately capture its inherent randomness, a dynamic analysis method for failure probability of in-service pipelines based on a dual stochastic process was proposed. The degradation of pipeline performance was simulated using an inverse Gaussian stochastic process, while the variation of internal pressure loads within the pipeline was described by an equal-interval stationary binomial rectangular wave process probability model. A dual stochastic process probability model for pipeline bearing capacity and internal pressure load was then constructed. Based on statistical parameters and performance degradation data from a specific pipeline's service period, inverse Gaussian distribution was used to fit the performance degradation models at six distinct time points, enabling dynamic failure probability prediction. The results show that the pipeline's service life is predicted to be 16 and 14 years using degradation data from 2 and 4 years, respectively. When utilizing degradation data from 6, 8, and 10 years, the predicted service lives are 12, 11, and 10 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicates that wall thickness, yield strength, pipe diameter, and operating pressure have the most significant impacts on the pipeline's failure probability, followed by the initial depth of defects. In contrast, the initial length of defects, depth corrosion rate, and length corrosion rate have relatively minor effects.

Key words: inverse Gaussian stochastic process, in-service pipeline, failure probability, service life, degradation data