关键词: 四网融合车站, 电气火灾, 故障树分析(FTA), 贝叶斯网络(BN), 风险评估

Abstract:

To precisely assess the electrical fire risk in four-network converged station, a risk assessment and critical path identification model was constructed by integrating FTA and BN. Firstly, FTA was used to establish a hierarchical framework for electrical fires in four-network converged stations, identifying 27 basic hazard events. Secondly, based on expert experience in fire protection, electrical engineering, operational management and simulation modeling, the failure probability of each basic event was quantified using trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then, the fault tree topology was mapped to a BN to complete the calculation of the top event probability and risk level classification. Finally, core hazard factors were identified through risk contribution ranking, critical path, and sensitivity analysis. The results show that the probability of electrical fires in the target station is 2.61%, which is classified as medium-high risk. Among them, the event of passengers carrying flammable luggage has the highest risk contribution to the top event and is the key factor for risk prevention and control. Meanwhile, the core failure chain of electrical fires in the target station is (regular personnel violations and improper operation → unsafe human behaviors → ignition source of electrical fire). Sensitivity analysis reveals that the set of flammable factors in electrical fires (construction flammables, passenger-carried flammable luggage, and irregular stacking of flammables due to management defects) present the highest risk contribution and should be the focus of prevention and control. Based on the above analysis, the study proposes differentiated prevention and control measures such as cross-network security inspection collaboration, multi-team joint drills, and cross-system fire inspection standards, which can provide theoretical basis and practical support for the prevention and control of electrical fires in integrated transportation hubs.

Key words: four-network converged station, electrical fire, fault tree analysis (FTA), Bayesian network (BN), risk assessment