关键词: 特定运行风险评估(SORA), 低空融合, 碰撞风险, 风险评估, 冲突解脱, 蒙特卡罗

Abstract:

In order to address the issues of collision risk quantification and safety separation standard establishment during the collaborative operation of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and manned aircraft in low-altitude integrated airspace, a collision risk assessment method was proposed based on the SORA framework. First, pre-operational risks are systematically evaluated utilizing the SORA framework, whereby the operational risks and safety objectives for specific-category UAVs in the proposed operation area were clarified. Subsequently, a dual-layer protection zone collision risk assessment model was constructed, in which safety system uncertainty factors, including position errors, aircraft quantity, and meteorological conditions (wind speed and direction), were comprehensively considered. Finally, typical conflict scenarios are analyzed using Monte Carlo simulations, and the conflict resolution probabilities and minimum safe separation distances were quantitatively calculated. The results demonstrate that the collision risk between UAVs and manned aircraft can be effectively reduced by the proposed model, fulfilling the international safety target of 10^-7 events per flight hour. Consequently, the applicability of SORA framework in integrated airspace is validated. Furthermore, the recommended minimum safe separation standards of 500 m for the inner layer and 4 000 m for the outer layer are derived, and the upper limit of airspace safety capacity is clearly defined. Additionally, a dynamic adjustment strategy is proposed, establishing that the outer protection zone radius should be increased by approximately 275.1 m for every 1 m/s increase in wind speed.

Key words: specific operations risk assessment (SORA), integrated airspace, collision risk, risk assessment, conflict resolution, Monte Carlo