雾天高速公路实时交通安全状态评价方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.04.020

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 110-115.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.04.020

雾天高速公路实时交通安全状态评价方法

张存保^1,2 副研究员, 彭汉辉¹, 张珊¹, 吕昌平¹

1 武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,湖北武汉 430063
2 武汉交通科技研究院有限责任公司,湖北武汉 430073

收稿日期:2016-12-10 修回日期:2017-02-12 发布日期:2020-11-22
作者简介:张存保 (1976—),男,湖北钟祥人,博士,副研究员,主要从事交通信息工程及控制、交通安全等方面研究。E-mail: zhangcunbao@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51578432);武汉市青年科技晨光计划资助项目(2016070204010124); 云南省交通运输厅科技计划资助项目(2016A05)。

Real-time traffic safety evaluation method for freeway in fog

ZHANG Cunbao^1,2, PENG Hanhui¹, ZHANG Shan¹, LYU Changping¹

1 Intelligent Transport System Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430063, China
2 Wuhan Institute of Transportation Technology Corporation, Wuhan Hubei 430073, China

Received:2016-12-10 Revised:2017-02-12 Published:2020-11-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为量化评价雾天环境中高速公路实时交通安全状态,以雾天高速公路交通观测数据为基础,在VISSIM仿真软件中模拟不同雾天环境下高速公路交通流运行状态,并分析雾天能见度、交通流参数与实时交通安全状态之间的关系;将交通冲突数作为高速公路实时交通安全状态的表征指标,运用随机森林算法确定影响实时交通安全状态的主要因素,并利用回归分析方法建立雾天环境中高速公路实时交通冲突数计算模型;选取美国I-43高速公路交通和气象数据,对雾天实时交通安全状态评价方法进行测试和验证。结果表明,模型计算的交通冲突数与交通事故的发生状态一致,能准确反映雾天交通事故发生前后的交通安全状态。

关键词: 高速公路, 实时交通安全状态, 随机森林, 雾天环境, 交通冲突

Abstract: To evaluate the real-time safety status of a freeway in fog, the VISSIM software was used to simulate freeway traffic flows in various foggy environments, based on the actual traffic data, and the relationships between visibility, traffic flow parameters and real-time traffic safety were analyzed. The number of traffic conflicts was selected as indicator of freeway real-time safety status, and the main factors influencing real-time traffic safety status were identified using the random forest method, then a calculation model was built for real-time traffic conflicts by regression analysis. The model was tested and verified by using the traffic and meteorology data for I-43 freeway in USA. The results show that the traffic conflicts calculated by the model are consistent with the occurrence of traffic accidents, which can accurately reflect traffic safety status before and after the accidents under a foggy weather condition.

Key words: freeway, real-time traffic safety, random forest, foggy environment, traffic conflict

中图分类号:

X951

张存保, 彭汉辉, 张珊, 吕昌平. 雾天高速公路实时交通安全状态评价方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(4): 110-115.

ZHANG Cunbao, PENG Hanhui, ZHANG Shan, LYU Changping. Real-time traffic safety evaluation method for freeway in fog[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(4): 110-115.

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雾天高速公路实时交通安全状态评价方法

Real-time traffic safety evaluation method for freeway in fog

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