风险不确定的海上应急物资储备库选址

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.09.028

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (9): 173-180.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.09.028

风险不确定的海上应急物资储备库选址

张聆晔, 吕靖教授

大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连 116026

收稿日期:2019-05-15 修回日期:2019-07-21 出版日期:2019-09-28 发布日期:2020-10-30
作者简介:张聆晔 (1994—),男,四川成都人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。E-mail:talentzly@hotmail.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(71473023);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(3132016359);国家社科基金重大专项资助(18VHQ005)。

Location of maritime emergency supplies repertories considering risk uncertainty

ZHANG Lingye, LYU Jing

College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China

Received:2019-05-15 Revised:2019-07-21 Online:2019-09-28 Published:2020-10-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提升海上应急系统的救助服务能力,研究海上应急物资储备库的选址问题。首先根据海上应急特点,从及时性、有效性以及不同风险等级的事故对应急服务需求量的差异性等角度考虑,引入应急效率满意度的概念,并将最大化应急效率值作为目标,构建海上应急物资储备库选址模型;然后通过离散仿真情景分析海上事故风险整体分布的不确定性,并利用鲁棒理论构建关于储备库选址的鲁棒优化模型;最后采用遗传算法求得最终选址方案。结果表明:在风险分布具有显著差异的离散仿真情景中,鲁棒优化模型相比确定性模型而言具有较好的稳定性,能够确保选址方案的可靠性。

关键词: 应急物资储备库, 风险等级, 选址模型, 鲁棒优化, 遗传算法

Abstract: In order to improve the rescue service capability of maritime emergency system, site selection of maritime emergency material reserve was studied. Firstly, according to the characteristics of maritime emergency response, the concept of emergency response satisfaction was introduced from the perspectives of timeliness, effectiveness and the difference in the demand for emergency response services among accidents with different risk levels. Based on this, a site selection model of marine emergency material reserve was constructed to realize the maximization of emergency efficiency. Then the uncertainty of the overall distribution of risk value of maritime accidents was analyzed by discrete simulation scenarios, and the robust optimization model of the location of storage pool was constructed by using robust theory. Finally, genetic algorithm was used to obtain the final location scheme. The results show that in discrete simulation scenarios with significant difference in risk distribution, the proposed robust optimization model are more stable than deterministic model and it can ensure the reliability of the location scheme.

Key words: emergency supplies repertories, risk level, location model, robust optimization, genetic algorithm

中图分类号:

X951

张聆晔, 吕靖. 风险不确定的海上应急物资储备库选址[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(9): 173-180.

ZHANG Lingye, LYU Jing. Location of maritime emergency supplies repertories considering risk uncertainty[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(9): 173-180.

参考文献

[1] 董骏峰,肖娇,梁昌勇,等.基于模块化的多层级储备库应急物资储备模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(11): 182-188.
DONG Junfeng, XIAO Jiao, LIANG Changyong, el at. Model for multi-tiered repositories emergency supplies reserves based on modularization[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018,28(11): 182-188.
[2] 张鑫,高淑春.需求不确定下的应急物资储备库选址模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(2): 169-174.
ZHANG Xin, GAO Shuchun. Research on location model of emergency supplies repository under demand uncertainty[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017,27(2): 169-174.
[3] 李志,李政祥,周愉峰,等.考虑中断情景与防御的应急物资储备库LIP模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(3): 90-95.
LI Zhi, LI Zhengxiang, ZHOU Yufeng, et al. A LIP model considering disruption scenarios and fortification for relief supplies reserve bases[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018,28(3): 90-95.
[4] 李云斌, 刘敬贤, 魏蕾,等. 渤海海域溢油应急基地多目标优化选址方法[J]. 哈尔滨工程大学学报, 2016, 37(4): 533-537.
LI Yunbin, LIU Jingxian, WEI Lei, et al. Multi-objective optimization of oil spill assistant site selection in the Bohai Sea[J]. Journal of Harbin Engineering University, 2016, 37(4): 533-537.
[5] 汪爱娇, 林国龙, 王学锋. 海上危险化学品应急基地的优化选址[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2011, 11(3): 200-203.
WANG Aijiao, LIN Guolong, WANG Xuefeng. Optimal location of maritime emergency bases of dangerous chemicals[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2011, 11(3): 200-203.
[6] AI Yunfei, LYU Jing, ZHANG Lili. The optimization model for the location of maritime emergency supplies reserve bases and the configuration of salvage vessels[J]. Transportation Research Part E, 2015, 83: 170-188.
[7] 艾云飞, 吕靖, 张丽丽. 三角模糊需求下水上应急储备库选址-分配优化模型[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2016, 16(2): 179-183.
AI Yunfei, LYU Jing, ZHANG Lili. Optimized location-allocation model for water emergency supplies repertories under triangular fuzzy demand[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2016, 16(2): 179-183.
[8] ZHANG Wenfen,YAN Xinping,YANG Jiaqi. Optimized maritime emergency resource allocation under dynamic demand[J]. Plos One, 2017, 12(12):e0189411.
[9] 吕靖, 王爽. 我国海上运输关键节点安全评价研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2015, 15(1): 30-36.
LYU Jing, WANG Shuang. Safety evaluation of China's maritime transport key nods[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2015, 15(1): 30-36.
[10] 吴兆麟, 朱军. 海上交通工程[M]. 大连: 大连海事大学出版社, 2004: 291-292.
[11] BYE R J, ASBJORN L A. Maritime navigation accidents and risk indicators: an exploratory statistical analysis using AIS data and accident reports[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2018, 176: 174-186.
[12] HEIJ C, KNAPP S. Effects of wind strength and wave height on ship incident risk: regional trends and seasonality[J]. Transportation Research Part D, 2015, 37: 29-39.
[13] WEI Liang, LI Weiping, LI Kailing, et al. Decision support for urban shelter locations based on covering model[J]. Procedia Engineering, 2012, 43: 59-64.
[14] SORESEN P, CHURCH R. Integrating expected coverage and local reliability for emergency medical services location problems[J]. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2010, 44(1): 8-18.
[15] PAUL N R, LUNDAY B J, NUYYE S G. A multiobjective, maximal conditional covering location problem applied to the relocation of hierarchical emergency response facilities[J]. Omega, 2017, 66: 147-158.
[16] 李彦瑾,罗霞,游云晴.贫信息情况下的应急救援路径选择模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(8): 174-179.
LI Yanjin, LUO Xia, YOU Yunqing. A model for emergency rescue path selection under poor information condition[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018,28(8): 174-179.

风险不确定的海上应急物资储备库选址

Location of maritime emergency supplies repertories considering risk uncertainty

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	许兴鹏, 许清风, 房志明, 吕伟, 黄溶岩. 全球恐怖袭击发展趋势与伤亡风险分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(6): 170-175.
[2]	白鹏, 陈霖峰, 王玺, 龚宇, 蒋淞榕, 周勍琪. 基于点融合的进场程序优化与航空器排序研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(12): 45-52.
[3]	邹荣伟, 杨启亮, 邢建春, 李苏亮, 陈文杰, 孔琳琳. 基于动静态混合数据分析的误报警判定方法:面向建筑信息模型的运维平台^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(11): 163-170.
[4]	肖鹏, 谢行俊, 双海清, 刘朝阳, 王海宁, 徐经苍. 基于KPCA-CMGANN算法的瓦斯涌出量预测研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(5): 39-47.
[5]	张忠义, 宋英华, 王喆, 刘丹. 多层级防汛应急物资储备库公私协同LAP模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(5): 177-183.
[6]	吕伟, 汪京辉, 赵相成, 徐一旻, 霍非舟, 李墨潇. 城市应急避难场所覆盖选择模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12): 157-164.
[7]	宋浚哲, 魏玉光. 考虑安全距离管控的装卸作业方案研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(S2): 24-29.
[8]	吴孟龙, 叶义成, 胡南燕, 姚囝, 江慧敏, 李文. RAGA-PPC云模型在边坡稳定性评价中的应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(9): 57-63.
[9]	周鑫隆, 章光, 李俊哲, 胡少华. 灰靶决策理论在岩爆烈度等级评价中的应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(5): 19-24.
[10]	胡立伟, 何越人, 佘天毅, 孟玲, 杨锦青. 高速公路应急救援中心选址优化模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(5): 145-150.
[11]	陈运秀, 李乃梁, 李开伟. 环境因素对感知绊倒风险的影响[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(4): 19-24.
[12]	吕伟, 李志红, 冯满满, 毛盾, 赵相成. 考虑资源和时间窗约束的应急物资调配模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(12): 137-143.
[13]	谢尊贤, 郭琰, 蒲涛. 基于BIM-GA-BN的养老社区施工安全评价模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(9): 19-25.
[14]	李彦瑾, 罗霞, 游云晴. 贫信息情况下的应急救援路径选择模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(8): 174-179.
[15]	张炜佶, 卫飞, 周睿, 王淑云. 投影寻踪在棉纺织作业环境风险评估中的应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(4): 103-108.