基于WBS-RBS和IFWA算子的中欧班列多式联运安全风险评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.06.1966

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 200-206.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.06.1966

基于WBS-RBS和IFWA算子的中欧班列多式联运安全风险评估

法慧妍¹^,²^,³(), 帅斌¹^,²^,³, 吕敏¹^,²^,³, 黄文成¹^,²^,³

1 西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都 611756
2 西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川成都 611756
3 综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都 611756

收稿日期:2022-01-12 修回日期:2022-04-15 出版日期:2022-06-28
作者简介:
法慧妍 (1999—),女,回族,山东潍坊人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为系统风险分析。E-mail: 1589988205@qq.com。
帅斌,教授
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(71173177); 四川省科技厅国际科技创新合作项目(2021YFH0106); 中央高校基本科研费项目(2682021CX052)

Safety risk assessment of multimodal transportation of China Railway Express based on WBS-RBS and IFWA operator

FA Huiyan¹^,²^,³(), SHUAI Bin¹^,²^,³, LYU Min¹^,²^,³, HUANG Wencheng¹^,²^,³

1 School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China
2 National United Engineering Laboratory of Intergrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China
3 National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China

Received:2022-01-12 Revised:2022-04-15 Published:2022-06-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为保障中欧班列多式联运安全,首先选取工作分解结构-风险分解结构(WBS-RBS)法识别中欧班列多式联运全过程中的风险;其次,基于直觉模糊语言集改进传统WBS-RBS中的风险矩阵赋值算法,建立WBS-RBS直觉模糊风险矩阵;然后基于得分函数,结合投影法,融合专家信息,选取直觉模糊加权算术平均(IFWA)算子计算各类风险大小,并对其进行排序;最后,选取“郑州-阿拉山口-阿克套港-巴库港-斯图加特”线路进行案例分析,并从国际沟通、作业管理、技术操作、信息衔接等方面提出保障中欧班列多式联运安全运输的策略与建议。结果表明:阿拉山口口岸站进行票务交接时信息沟通程度、清关作业管理水平及斯图加特站进行基础作业时的社会秩序等是运输环节中较为明显的风险因素。

关键词: 工作分解结构-风险分结解结构法(WBS-RBS), 直觉模糊加权算术平均(IFWA)算子, 中欧班列多式联运, 安全风险评估, 直觉模糊数, 投影法

Abstract:

In order to ensure the safety of the multimodal transportation process of China Railway Express, the WBS-RBS method was selected to identify risks in the entire process of mutimodal transportation of China Railway Express. The traditional WBS-RBS risk matrix assignment algorithm was then improved based on the intuitionistic fuzzy language set, and WBS-RBS intuitionistic fuzzy risk matrix was established. Then, based on the score function of the intuitionistic fuzzy number, combined with the projection method to fuse expert information, the IFWA operator was selected to calculate and rank various risks. Finally, the "Zhengzhou-Alashankou-Aktau Port-Baku Port-Stuttgart" route was selected for the case study,strategies and suggestions for ensuring the safety of multimodal transportation of China Railway Express are put forward from the aspects of international communication, operation management, technical operations, and information connection. The results show that the level of information communication during ticket handover and the level of customs clearance operation management at Alashankou port station, and the social order during basic operation at Stuttgart station are all obvious risks.

Key words: work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure(WBS-RBS), intuitive fuzzy weighted average (IFWA) operator, multimodal transportation of China Railway Express, safety risk assessment, intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, projection method

法慧妍, 帅斌, 吕敏, 黄文成. 基于WBS-RBS和IFWA算子的中欧班列多式联运安全风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(6): 200-206.

FA Huiyan, SHUAI Bin, LYU Min, HUANG Wencheng. Safety risk assessment of multimodal transportation of China Railway Express based on WBS-RBS and IFWA operator[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(6): 200-206.

图/表 4

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风险因素	工作模块
	郑州站			阿拉山口口岸站
	基础作业	日常维护	货票制作	边检手续检查	整列货物换装	清关作业
气候条件	0	0	0	1	1	1
自然灾害	1	1	1	1	1	1
社会秩序	0	0	0	1	1	1

基于WBS-RBS和IFWA算子的中欧班列多式联运安全风险评估

Safety risk assessment of multimodal transportation of China Railway Express based on WBS-RBS and IFWA operator

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