港口岸桥安装施工安全风险评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.12.2769

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高港口岸桥施工安全,通过辨识岸桥安装风险因素,确定岸桥安装风险等级,以岸桥安装施工安全风险评估为顶层目标,提出一种基于云层次分析法(C-AHP)的岸桥安装施工安全风险评估模型。首先,从人、机、环、管4方面构建岸桥安装评估指标体系,引入云模型的概念,修正传统AHP法标度理论,以期望、熵、超熵3个数字特征表征系统的随机性、模糊性和离散性,从而确定各指标相对权重及风险值的云数字特征;然后,采用云模型量化各指标的随机性和模糊性,得到总体评估结果;最后,依托天津港某集装箱码头岸桥安装工程进行实例分析。结果表明:设备因素对岸桥安装施工安全风险的影响程度最高,其次为环境因素、管理因素和人员因素;岸桥安装施工安全总体风险值为47.769,风险等级为Ⅱ级,处于可接受准则区间,符合实际评估结果。

关键词: 港口, 岸桥, 安装施工, 安全风险评估, 云层次分析法(C-AHP), 云模型

Abstract:

In order to improve the safety of port quayside bridge construction, the risk level of quayside bridge installation was determined by identifying the risk factors of quay crane installation. With the safety risk assessment of quay crane installation as the top goal, a risk assessment model based on (C-AHP) was proposed. Firstly, a quay crane installation assessment index system from 4 aspects, human, machine, environment and management, was constructed. The concept of the cloud model was introduced to modify the traditional AHP method scalar theory. The randomness, fuzziness and dispersion of the system were represented by 3 numerical features, expectation, entropy and super entropy, so as to determine the relative weights of each index and the cloud numerical features of risk values. The randomness and fuzziness of each index were quantified by the cloud model, and the overall evaluation results were obtained. Finally, an example analysis was carried out based on the installation of a quay crane at a container terminal in Tianjin port. The results show that the equipment factor has the highest degree of influence on the safety risk of quay crane installation construction, followed by environmental factors, management factors and personnel factors. The overall risk value for the construction safety of the quay crane installation is 47.769, with a risk level of II, which is within the acceptable guideline range and in line with the actual assessment results.

Key words: port, quay crane, installation construction, safety risk assessment, cloud analytic hierarchy process(C-AHP), cloud model

纪柯柯, 李正中, 刘双, 张馨, 王冠妍, 王绪亭. 港口岸桥安装施工安全风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(12): 102-109.

JI Keke, LI Zhengzhong, LIU Shuang, ZHANG Xin, WANG Guangyan, WANG Xuting. Safety risk assessment for port quay crane installation construction[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(12): 102-109.

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定义		改进标度	定义		改进标度
B_i比B_j 重要	极端重要	A₉(9,0.167,0.05)	B_j比B_i 重要	介于相邻等级间	A_1/2(1/2,0.167/4,0.05/4)
	介于相邻等级间	A₈(8,0.167,0.05)		稍微重要	A_1/3(1/3,0.167/9,0.05/9)
	强烈重要	A₇(7,0.167,0.05)		介于相邻等级间	A_1/4(1/4,0.167/16,0.05/16)
	介于相邻等级间	A₆(6,0.167,0.05)		明显重要	A_1/5(1/5,0.167/25,0.05/25)
	明显重要	A₅(5,0.167,0.05)		介于相邻等级间	A_1/6(1/6,0.167/36,0.05/36)
	介于相邻等级间	A₄(4,0.167,0.05)		强烈重要	A_1/7(1/7,0.167/49,0.05/49)
	稍微重要	A₃(3,0.167,0.05)		介于相邻等级间	A_1/8(1/8,0.167/64,0.05/64)
	介于相邻等级间	A₂(2,0.167,0.05)		极端重要	A_1/9(1/9,0.167/81,0.05/81)
同等重要		A₁(1,0,0)	—	—	—

风险等级	分值区间	接受准则	控制对策	云模型特征参数
等级Ⅳ(重大风险)	[60,100)	不可接受	暂停施工,必须采取措施将风险至少降低到不期望的程度,并加强监测和应急准备	C₄(80,16.99,0.1)
等级Ⅲ(较大风险)	[50,60)	不期望	必须采取措施降低风险,减少风险可能导致的损失	C₃(55,4.25,0.05)
等级Ⅱ(一般风险)	[40,50)	可接受	需采取风险防控措施,严格日常安全生产管理,加强现场巡视	C₂(45,4.25,0.04)
等级Ⅰ(较小风险)	(0,40)	忽略	不需采取特别的风险防控措施	C₁(20,16.99,0.01)

三级指标	权重云数字特征		风险因素的评价云数字特征
V₁₁	(0.064,0.068,0.068)		(29.6,4.111,3.407)
V₁₂	(0.101,0.112,0.112)		(41.6,5.114,3.906)
V₁₃	(0.16,0.179,0.179)		(35.4,4.412,3.489)
V₁₄	(0.381,0.336,0.336)		(16.6,5.114,3.906)
V₁₅	(0.252,0.267,0.267)		(19,2.507,1.511)
V₁₆	(0.042,0.037,0.037)		(47.2,2.607,2.576)
V₂₁	(0.204,0.087,0.203)		(55.6,1.604,1.065)
V₂₂	(0.221,0.676,0.249)		(58,2.106,2.045)
V₂₃	(0.363,0.146,0.339)		(48.2,1.805,1.139)
V₂₄	(0.103,0.0446,0.107)		(53.2,0.902,0.897)
V₂₅	(0.066,0.028,0.065)		(62,3.008,3.008)
三级指标	权重云数字特征	风险因素的评价云数字特征
V₂₆	(0.043,0.015,0.036)	(57.6,0.802,0.058)
V₃₁	(0.074,0.076,0.076)	(25.4,3.108,3.102)
V₃₂	(0.135,0.134,0.134)	(17,2.005,1.738)
V₃₃	(0.414,0.378,0.375)	(64.2,2.106,2.067)
V₃₄	(0.241,0.285,0.283)	(45.4,1.604,0.94)
V₃₅	(0.135,0.126,0.134)	(27.4,1.604,1.443)
V₄₁	(0.062,0.055,0.055)	(16.4,3.91,2.247)
V₄₂	(0.16,0.18,0.18)	(47.4,2.707,2.586)
V₄₃	(0.417,0.375,0.375)	(55.6,1.404,1.371)
V₄₄	(0.263,0.285,0.285)	(31.6,1.604,1.391)
V₄₅	(0.097,0.105,0.105)	(38.2,7.219,6.52)

二级指标	权重云数字特征	风险因素云数字特征
人员因素	(0.108,0.116,0.116)	(24.855,4.184,3.16)
设备因素	(0.566,0.494,0.494)	(53.705,1.8,1.402)
环境因素	(0.229,0.314,0.314)	(45.394,1.997,1.767)
管理因素	(0.098,0.076,0.076)	(43.802,2.411,2.153)