灾害链网络下城市区域安全风险评估模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2043

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为更准确地评估城市区域安全风险,提出灾害链网络下的城市区域安全风险评估模型,并建立灾害链网络结构表征模型,采用复杂网络的抗毁性调整灾害链网络安全风险;提出衡量灾害链网络的安全风险不确定性和历史数据客观性的方法,降低模型的历史依赖性和不确定性,利用源头管控和风险防范能力削减区域风险;以某城区为应用对象,利用所提评估模型,评估该区域安全风险。结果表明:该方法能够同时考虑灾害之间的触发作用、灾害链网络的抗毁性,结合风险不确定性和历史数据客观性,评估城市区域安全风险。实例应用证明,城市灾害的触发关系以及形成灾害链网络结构会加剧城市区域安全风险。

关键词: 灾害链网络, 城市区域, 安全风险评估, 城市灾害, 复杂网络

Abstract:

To assess the risk of urban areas more accurately, a safety risk assessment model of urban areas based on disaster chain networks was proposed. The structure representation model of disaster chain network was established, and the risk of disaster chain network was adjusted by the resilience of complex network. A method to measure the risk uncertainty of disaster chain network and the objectivity of historical data was established to reduce the historical dependence and uncertainty of the model. The source control and risk prevention capabilities were used to reduce regional risks. Taking an urban area as the application object, the proposed evaluation model was used to evaluate the regional security risk. The results show that the method simultaneously considers the trigger effect between disasters and the resilience of disaster chain network, the risk uncertainty and the objectivity of historical data, and evaluates the security risk of urban area. Through the example application, it is proved that the triggering relationship of urban disaster and the formation of disaster chain network structure will aggravate the security risk of urban region.

Key words: disaster chain retworks, urban area, safety risk assessment, urban disaster, complex networks

陈国华, 李佳玲, 陈学希, 杨琴. 灾害链网络下城市区域安全风险评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(11): 146-153.

CHEN Guohua, LI Jialing, CHEN Xuexi, YANG Qin. A safety risk assessment model of urban areas under disaster chain network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(11): 146-153.

图/表 8

图1

图2

表1

风险评估要素指标体系及分级标准

指标类型	等级 (描述,值)	一级 (极低,1)	二级 (低,2)	三级 (中,3)	四级 (高,4)	五级 (极高,5)
可能性 $x q i a$	诱发因素产生的可能性	不易出现	较少出现	可能出现	较常出现	持续存在
源头管控能力 $C y i$	安全预警技术完善程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	源头治理技术措施完善程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	周期隐患排查整改程度	[0,0.3)	[0.3,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1)	1
	安全管理人员配备达标程度	[0,0.3)	[0.3,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1)	1
灾害事件历史损失 $L h i$	死亡率D_i/(人·次^-1)	0	(0,1)	[1,3)	[3,10)	[10,∞)
	受伤率I_i/(人·次^-1)	0	(0,5)	[5,10)	[10,50)	[50,∞)
	经济损失F_i/(万元·次^-1)	[0,1)	[1,10)	[10,100)	[100,1000)	[1000,∞)
灾害事件强度q_i	灾害事件发生的强度	极弱	较弱	中等	较强	极强
承灾体暴露度 $V E i$	受影响人口占比	[0,0.01)	[0.01,0.04)	[0.04,0.07)	[0.07,0.1)	[0.1,1]
	死伤率/人/万人	[0,0.1)	[0.1,0.2)	[0.2,0.3)	[0.3,0.4)	[0.4,10 000]
	受影响面积占比	[0,0.01)	[0.01,0.04)	[0.04,0.07)	[0.07,0.1)	[0.1,1]
	受影响GDP占比	[0,0.01)	[0.01,0.04)	[0.04,0.07)	[0.07,0.1)	[0.1,1]
承灾体脆弱性V_C	人口抚养比	[0,0.25)	[0.25,0.3)	[0.3,0.4)	[0.4,0.5)	[0.5,1]
	失业率	[0,0.02)	[0.02,0.03)	[0.03,0.04)	[0.04,0.05)	[0.05,1]
	大专及以上学历人数占比	[0.2,1]	[0.15,0.2)	[0.1,0.15)	[0.05,0.1)	[0,0.05)
	每千人拥有医生数	[4.5,1 000]	[4.25,4.5)	[4.25,4)	[3.5,3.75)	[0,3.5)
	每千人拥有病床数	[9,1 000]	[8,9)	[7,8)	[6,7)	[0,6)
	人均GDP/万元	[10,∞)	[7,10)	[5.5,7)	[4.5,5.5)	[0,4.5)
	第三产业占比	[0.6,1]	[0.5,0.6)	[0.45,0.5)	[0.4,0.45)	[0,0.4)
	第二产业占比	[0,0.45)	[0.45,0.5)	[0.5,0.55)	[0.55,0.6)	[0.6,1]
	基尼指数	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.3)	[0.3,0.4)	[0.4,0.5)	[0.5,1]
风险防范能力 $C f i$	安全基础设施完善程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	安全管理制度完善落实程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	宣传教育活动覆盖程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	安全生产教育达标程度	[0,0.3)	[0.3,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1)	1

表1

表2

表3

Z城区历史灾害事故统计

灾害类型	事故种类	事故起数	死伤人数	经济损失
自然灾害	台风灾害 $A 1$	23	0	—
	地质灾害 $A 2$	25	0	0
	森林火灾 $A 3$	0	0	0
	雷电灾害 $A 4$	20	0	5.84
事故灾难	危险化学品生产经营单位火灾爆炸事故 $A 5$	0	0	0
	危险货物运输火灾爆炸事故 $A 6$	0	0	0
	粉尘涉爆企业火灾爆炸事故 $A 7$	0	0	0
	建筑施工安全事故 $A 8$	11	11	1120
	人员密集场所消防安全事故 $A 9$	5	0	0.7
	城镇燃气管道事故 $A 10$	0	0	0
	电力设施安全事故 $A 11$	0	0	0
	道路交通运输事故 $A 12$	13 532	841	371

表3

图3

表4

Z城区各灾害事件发生的概率

触发灾害	被触发灾害
触发灾害	$A 1$	$A 2$	$A 3$	$A 4$	$A 5$	$A 6$	$A 7$	$A 8$	$A 9$	$A 10$	$A 11$	$A 12$
$A 1$	0.67	0.28	0	0.14	0.21	0.14	0.21	0.28	0	0.07	0.07	0.07
$A 2$	0	0.56	0	0	0	0.14	0	0.28	0	0	0	0.14
$A 3$	0	0	0.22	0	0.28	0.28	0.28	0	0	0	0.28	0
$A 4$	0	0	0.15	0.59	0.14	0.14	0.14	0	0.07	0	0.14	0
$A 5$	0	0	0.22	0	0.14	0	0.07	0	0	0	0	0
$A 6$	0	0	0.22	0	0.14	0.21	0	0	0	0	0	0.22
$A 7$	0	0	0	0	0.07	0	0.21	0	0	0	0	0
$A 8$	0	0.15	0	0	0	0	0	0.67	0	0	0	0
$A 9$	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.35	0	0.07	0
$A 10$	0	0	0.15	0	0	0	0	0	0.21	0.14	0.07	0.14
$A 11$	0	0	0.22	0	0.21	0.21	0.21	0	0	0.07	0.07	0
$A 12$	0	0	0	0	0	0.35	0	0	0	0	0	0.64

表4

表5

Z城区发生事故的损失及安全风险

事件	$L i$	$R i$	$λ - i$	$R d i$	风险等级	$w i$
$A 1$	11.16	22.46	0.83	18.75	较高	0.13
$A 2$	4.74	8.65	0.52	4.51	较低	0.08
$A 3$	6.59	5.20	0.40	2.06	较低	0.06
$A 4$	3.88	9.26	0.82	7.55	中	0.12
$A 5$	12.88	2.46	0.30	0.74	低	0.05
$A 6$	8.40	3.72	0.52	1.94	较低	0.08
$A 7$	8.40	2.00	0.19	0.39	低	0.03
$A 8$	21.71	15.37	0.49	7.60	中	0.08
$A 9$	6.97	3.19	0.69	2.20	较低	0.11
$A 10$	25.53	4.79	0.6	2.90	较低	0.09
$A 11$	15.47	2.14	0.69	1.48	较低	0.11
$A 12$	14.15	12.33	0.52	6.41	中	0.08
A	$R = 9.55$ ;中

表5

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