基于复杂网络的水电工程施工安全隐患时序特性*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.08.2315

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (8): 61-66.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.08.2315

基于复杂网络的水电工程施工安全隐患时序特性*

陈述¹^,²(), 朱丽萍², 陈云¹^,²^,^**(), 郑霞忠¹^,², 纪勤²

¹ 三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌 443002
² 三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌 443002

收稿日期:2022-02-20 修回日期:2022-06-11 出版日期:2022-09-05 发布日期:2023-02-28
通讯作者: 陈云
作者简介:
陈述 (1986—),男,湖北英山人,博士,教授,主要从事水电工程施工安全管理研究。E-mail: chenshu@ctgu.edu.cn。
陈云, 讲师。
郑霞忠, 教授。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(52079073); 水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金资助(2020KSD10)

Sequential characteristics of safety hazards in hydropower project construction based on complex networks

CHEN Shu¹^,²(), ZHU Liping², CHEN Yun¹^,²^,^**(), ZHENG Xiazhong¹^,², JI Qin²

¹ Hubei Key Laboratory of Hydropower Engineering Construction and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China
² College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China

Received:2022-02-20 Revised:2022-06-11 Online:2022-09-05 Published:2023-02-28
Contact: CHEN Yun

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高水电工程施工安全隐患治理水平,分析水电工程施工安全隐患非线性时间序列特点,基于可视图算法构建隐患时间序列的复杂网络模型,挖掘某水电站2016—2020年3 160条施工安全隐患排查数据,计算安全隐患时间序列网络的度及度分布、幂律指数、聚类系数、网络直径、平均路径长度等网络特征参数,揭示水电工程施工安全隐患发生的时间规律特性。结果表明:该水电工程的施工安全隐患发现时间表现出显著阶段性、无标度性和小世界性等演化特征。隐患时间间隔过长会极大地削弱整个水电工程建设安全隐患管理的鲁棒性,及时管控少数关键时间节点,可降低水电工程安全隐患风险。

关键词: 复杂网络, 水电工程施工, 安全隐患, 时间序列, 可视图法

Abstract:

In order to improve safety hazards management in hydropower project construction, nonlinear sequential characteristics of the hazards were analyzed, and a complex network model of the time series was built based on visual graph algorithm. Then, 3 160 hazard data of a hydropower station from 2016 to 2020 were mined, and parameters of the network's degree, degree distribution, power law index, clustering coefficient, diameter, average path length, etc. were calculated to reveal temporal characteristics of the hazards in the project construction. The results show that the discovery timing of the hazards in this project indicates obvious phased, scale-free and small-world evolutionary characteristics. As long intervals during the hazards will significantly undermine robustness performance of management in the whole project construction, controlling the few key time nodes can reduce risks in hydropower projects. It provides a theoretical method for further mining the prediction of sequential characteristics of safety hazards in hydropower project construction.

Key words: complex network, hydropower project construction, safety hazards, time series, visibility graph algorithm

陈述, 朱丽萍, 陈云, 郑霞忠, 纪勤. 基于复杂网络的水电工程施工安全隐患时序特性*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(8): 61-66.

CHEN Shu, ZHU Liping, CHEN Yun, ZHENG Xiazhong, JI Qin. Sequential characteristics of safety hazards in hydropower project construction based on complex networks[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(8): 61-66.

图/表 7

表1

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

参考文献 16

[1]	陈述, 田亚, 袁越. 风力作用下的大坝浇筑空间冲突频率研究[J]. 水力发电学报, 2020, 39(5): 27-35.
	CHEN Shu, TIAN Ya, YUAN Yue. Frequency of pouring space conflicts in dam construction under wind influence[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2020, 39(5): 27-35.
[2]	JIMMIE H. Identifying root causes of construction injuries[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1998, 124(1):61-71.
[3]	刘帅, 盛金保, 王昭升, 等. 基于模糊神经网络的水电施工安全隐患评价[J]. 水利水运工程学报, 2020(1): 105-111.
	LIU Shuai, SHENG Jinbao, WANG Zhaosheng, et al. Evaluation method for hidden safety dangers of hydropower construction based on fuzzy neural network[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2020(1): 105-111.
[4]	谭章禄, 陈孝慈. 基于复杂网络分析的煤矿安全隐患管理研究[J]. 工矿自动化, 2019, 45(6): 86-90.
	TAN Zhanglu, CHEN Xiaoci. Research on coal mine safety hidden danger management based on complex network analysis[J]. Industry and Mine Automation, 2019, 45(6): 86-90.
[5]	ZHOU Cheng, DING Lieyun, LUO Hanbin, et al. Characterizing time series of near-miss accidents in metro construction via complex network theory[J]. Safety Science, 2017, 98:145-158. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2017.06.012
[6]	MARIA G G, JOSEPH H S. Near-miss management systems and observability-in-depth: handling safety incidents and accident precursors in light of safety principles[J]. Safety Science, 2017, 91:154-167. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2016.08.012
[7]	樊启祥, 林鹏, 魏鹏程, 等. 水电工程安全事故发生机制与管理对策[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(1): 144-149. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.01.024
	FAN Qixiang, LIN Peng, WEI Pengcheng, et al. Hydropower engineering safety accident occurrence mechanism and management strategies[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(1): 144-149. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.01.024
[8]	CHEN Shu, XI Junbo, CHEN Yun, et al. Association mining of near misses in hydropower engineering construction based on convolutional neural network text classification[J]. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2022, 2022:1-16.
[9]	蒋云钟, 冶运涛, 赵红莉, 等. 水利大数据研究现状与展望[J]. 水力发电学报, 2020, 39(10): 1-32.
	JIANG Yunzhong, YE Yuntao, ZHAO Hongli, et al. Research status and prospects on water conservancy big data[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2020, 39(10): 1-32.
[10]	张涵涛, 周诚. 基于复杂网络的地铁施工现场不安全行为时间特性[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2017, 34(4): 138-142.
	ZHANG Hantao, ZHOU Cheng. Unsafe behaviors time characteristics based on complex networks in subway construction[J]. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2017, 34(4): 138-142.
[11]	ZHOU Zhipeng, IRIZARRY J, LI Qiming. Using network theory to explore the complexity of subway construction accident network (SCAN) for promoting safety management[J]. Safety Science, 2014, 64:127-136. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2013.11.029
[12]	陈超洋, 周勇, 池明, 等. 基于复杂网络理论的大电网脆弱性研究综述[J]. 控制与决策, 2022, 37(4): 1-17.
	CHEN Chaoyang, ZHOU Yong, CHI Ming, et al. Review of large power grids vulnerability based on complex network theory[J]. Control and Decision, 2022, 37(4): 1-17.
[13]	LU Linyuan, CHEN Duanbing, REN Xiaolong, et al. Vital nodes identification in complex networks[J]. Physics Reports, 2016, 650:1-63. doi: 10.1016/j.physrep.2016.06.007
[14]	WANG Ze, LI Huajiao, TANG Renwu. Network analysis of coal mine hazards based on text mining and link prediction[J]. International Journal of Modern Physics C, 2019, 30(7):1-22.
[15]	DING Rui, NORSIDAH U, HUSSAIN B H, et al. Application of complex networks theory in urban traffic network researches[J]. Networks and Spatial Economics, 2019, 19(4):1281-1317. doi: 10.1007/s11067-019-09466-5
[16]	陈述, 习俊博, 王建平, 等. 水电工程施工安全隐患关联规则挖掘[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(8): 75-82. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.08.011
	CHEN Shu, XI Junbo, WANG Jianping, et al. Mining association rules of near-misses of hydropower construction[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(8): 75-82. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.08.011

问题编码	隐患位置	隐患描述	发现日期
20010740	水垫塘	水垫塘排架无安全爬梯	2020-09-29
20010739	左岸2005 连接廊道	机组违规使用插线板	2020-09-29
︙	︙	︙	︙
2016032915657	2号导流洞进口	2号导流洞进口底板浇筑时黑龙滩浇筑队作业人员未系安全帽带	2016-03-29

基于复杂网络的水电工程施工安全隐患时序特性*

Sequential characteristics of safety hazards in hydropower project construction based on complex networks

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 7

参考文献 16

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	杨景峰, 朱大鹏, 赵瑞琳. 城轨网络站点重要度评估与级联失效抗毁性分析*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(8): 161-167.
[2]	马亮, 胡宸瀚, 陈光伟. 铁路快速货运复杂网络拓扑特征与鲁棒性分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(6): 178-185.
[3]	陈述, 习俊博, 王建平, 陈云. 水电工程施工安全隐患关联规则挖掘^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(8): 75-82.
[4]	李浩然, 王子恒, 杨起帆, 张亚君, 欧阳作林. 复杂网络下地铁灾害链演化模型与风险分析^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(11): 141-147.
[5]	任乐峰, 孟祥坤, 陈国明. 滩海油气管道泄漏风险演化与评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(1): 159-164.
[6]	董皓, 崔有泉, 孙丽君. 高速铁路安全环境治理分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(S1): 32-37.
[7]	陈禾. 地方铁路安全管理问题及对策研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(S1): 54-58.
[8]	张帆, 步兵, 赵骏逸. 列车运行控制系统信息安全风险评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(S1): 172-178.
[9]	陈文瑛, 李泳暾, 宋志光. 基于复杂网络的生产安全事故致因研究:以北京市某城区为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(7): 7-12.
[10]	王岩韬, 陈冠铭. 基于时间序列模型的航班运行风险短期预测[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(5): 33-38.
[11]	罗军华, 林孝松, 牟凤云, 李宏伟, 张莉. 山区暴雨-农业灾害链复杂网络静态风险分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(3): 163-170.
[12]	景楠, 胡怡, 韩喜双. 基于ARIMA与LSTM的新冠肺炎网络关注度趋势研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12): 37-42.
[13]	牟能冶, 康秋萍, 贾程方. 突发事件影响下的城市快递网络脆弱性评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12): 125-132.
[14]	李硕, 袁颖群. 安全风险与隐患管理对铁路安全影响研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(S2): 99-103.
[15]	花玲玲, 郑伟. 基于复杂网络理论的铁路事故致因分析^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(S1): 114-119.