基于信息熵的森林火灾应急指挥信息传递分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.01.2359

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升森林火灾应急指挥协同能力,剖析指挥过程中要素之间的影响关系,首先基于系统理论事故模型与过程分析法(STAMP)的思想,明确事故近因事件链,辨识相关的控制组件,构建森林火灾应急指挥控制结构;然后根据复杂网络理论建立森林火灾应急指挥信息流动的有权无项网络,对实时、阶段和固定3类信息的信息量进行建模计算,从而确定信息熵;同时建立边载权重计算模型,用以描述不同信息传递路径的重要度。结果表明:前线指挥部在应急指挥扑火过程中重要性最大,且与联合指挥部的信息传递密集程度最大;扑火组和专业扑火队之间信息总量和信息熵最大,分别为24和3.900,指挥中需保证人员部署的准确性;专家研判和气象信息在一定程度上会影响扑火过程中的指挥决策,应重点监控这2方面的信息传递路径,保证传输通畅性。

关键词: 信息熵, 森林火灾, 应急指挥, 信息传递, 系统理论事故模型与过程分析法(STAMP)

Abstract:

In order to improve the coordination ability of forest fire emergency command and analyze the logical influence between elements of the command process, the article first clarified the chain of proximate causes of accidents, identified the relevant control components, and built a forest fire emergency command and control structure based on STAMP model. According to the complex network theory, this article established a powerless network for forest fire emergency command information flow and a model to determine the information quantity of real-time, phase and fixed information, by which information entropy was determined. A side-load weight calculation model was established for describing the importance of different information delivery paths. The results show that the front headquarters is the most important in the firefighting process of emergency command, and the information transmission between the front headquarters and the joint headquarters is the most intensive. The information total quantity and information entropies between fire extinguishing group and professional fire extinguishing team are maximum, which are 24 and 3.900 respectively. Accuracy of personnel deployment must be ensured in command. Expert judgment and meteorological information will affect the command decision-making of fire extinguishing process to a certain extent. The information transmission path of expert judgment and meteorological monitoring should be monitored to ensure the smooth transmission.

Key words: information entropy, forest fires, emergency command, information transfer, systems-theoretic accident model and process (STAMP)

李华, 郭皓杰, 谢辉, 蔺鹏. 基于信息熵的森林火灾应急指挥信息传递分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(1): 80-87.

LI Hua, GUO Haojie, XIE Hui, LIN Peng. Information transmission analysis of forest fire emergency command based on information entropy[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(1): 80-87.

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编号	节点名称	编号	节点名称
1	宁南县林草局	12	省委省政府工作组
2	宁南县森林草原防火专业扑火队	13	应急管理部工作组
3	经久乡森林草原防灭火指挥部值班室	14	省-州-市联合指挥部
4	凉山州森林草原防灭火指挥部值班室	15	西昌市泸山国有林场
5	西昌市森林草原防灭火指挥部值班室	16	西昌市林草局
6	西昌市前线指挥部	17	扑火组
7	凉山州-西昌市联合指挥部	18	会商组
8	森林消防	19	气象部门
9	消防救援	20	技术专家
10	地方专业扑火队	21	西昌市委、市政府
11	应急民兵	22	凉山州委、州政府

边	x_ij	H(α_ij)	边	x_ij	H(α_ij)
1-2	3	0.831	6-21	24	3.800
1-7	3	0.602	7-14	24	3.787
2-10	24	3.900	7-22	24	3.801
2-15	16	0.611	8-17	13	1.450
3-5	15	0.603	9-17	13	1.450
3-16	19	1.446	10-17	13	1.450
4-5	15	0.638	11-17	10	1.450
4-6	15	0.638	12-14	5	0.850
6-7	24	3.786	13-14	5	0.686
6-12	17	1.471	15-16	15	0.752
6-13	8	1.431	18-19	15	1.436
6-17	24	3.672	18-20	12	1.523
6-18	21	1.444	—	—	—

边	权重	边	权重
1-2	1.203	6-21	0.263
1-7	1.661	7-14	0.264
2-10	0.256	7-22	0.263
2-15	1.637	8-17	0.690
3-5	1.658	9-17	0.690
3-16	0.692	10-17	0.690
4-5	1.567	11-17	0.690
4-6	1.567	12-14	1.176
6-7	0.264	13-14	1.458
6-12	0.680	15-16	1.330
6-13	0.699	18-19	0.696
6-17	0.272	18-20	0.657
6-18	0.693	—	—