城市建筑群抗震韧性集成评估方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.04.1116

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 219-226.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.04.1116

城市建筑群抗震韧性集成评估方法

王威教授¹(), 龚玉涿², 朱峻佚¹, 夏陈红助理研究员¹, 郭小东教授¹^,^**()

¹ 北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院,北京 100124
² 北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京 100124

收稿日期:2024-11-12 修回日期:2025-02-11 出版日期:2025-04-28
通信作者:
**郭小东(1977—),男,江苏南通人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事城乡安全与防灾韧性规划方面的研究。E-mail:gxd@bjut.edu.cn。
作者简介:
王威 (1981—),男,河南沈丘人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事城乡安全与防灾韧性规划方面的研究。E-mail:ieeww@bjut.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(52278472); 北京市自然科学基金资助(8232004); 北京市自然科学基金资助(8254041)

Integrated evaluation methods of seismic resilience of urban group buildings

WANG Wei¹(), GONG Yuzhuo², ZHU Junyi¹, XIA Chenhong¹, GUO Xiaodong¹^,^**()

¹ College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
² College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

Received:2024-11-12 Revised:2025-02-11 Published:2025-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为评估不同需求下城市建筑群抗震韧性,探索城市建筑群抗震韧性集成评估方法,利用树增强朴素贝叶斯网络(BN)方法构建BN模型,通过整合建筑类型、建造年代、结构类型等关键指标,快速预测不同目标地震下的建筑震害损伤状态;采用韧性指数法、韧性要素等级法、风险韧性分析法和建筑群落韧性指标评价法4种韧性评估方法,集成评价北京市丰台区某街道群体建筑的抗震韧性,并对比分析各方法的优缺点及适用性。结果表明:韧性指数法适用于快速评估建筑恢复能力;韧性要素等级法便于直观显示建筑韧性等级;风险韧性分析法对灾害不确定性和随机性有较好处理能力;建筑群落韧性指标评价法则强调功能需求对综合评估的影响。

关键词: 城市建筑群, 抗震韧性, 集成评估, 损伤状态, 贝叶斯网络(BN)

Abstract:

To evaluate the seismic resilience of urban group buildings under different demands, an integrated assessment methodology was developed for urban building clusters' earthquake resistance. A tree-augmented naive Bayesian method was employed to construct a BN model that rapidly predicted structural damage states under various target earthquakes through multi-parameter analysis including building types, construction eras, and structural configurations. Multiple resilience evaluation theories and methods-comprising the resilience index method, resilience element rating method, risk-resilience analysis method, and group buildings resilience indicator evaluation method-were integrated to comprehensively assess the seismic resilience of group buildings in a specific street of Fengtai District, Beijing. Comparative analyses were conducted to examine the advantages, limitations, and applicability of these approaches. The results indicate that the resilience index method proves suitable for rapid assessment of building recovery capacity, while the resilience element rating method facilitates intuitive visualization of structural resilience levels. The risk-resilience analysis method demonstrates superior capability in handling disaster uncertainties and stochastic characteristics, whereas the group buildings resilience indicator evaluation method emphasizes the critical influence of functional requirements on comprehensive assessments.

Key words: urban group buildings, seismic resilience, integrated evaluation, damage states, Bayesian network (BN)

中图分类号:

X915.5

王威, 龚玉涿, 朱峻佚, 夏陈红, 郭小东. 城市建筑群抗震韧性集成评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(4): 219-226.

WANG Wei, GONG Yuzhuo, ZHU Junyi, XIA Chenhong, GUO Xiaodong. Integrated evaluation methods of seismic resilience of urban group buildings[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(4): 219-226.

图/表 15

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表2

图8

表3

表4

图9

图10

图11

参考文献 13

[1]	Federal Emergency Management Agency. National response framework (4^th ed.)[R], 2018.
[2]	MOSALAM K M, KASALANTI A. PEER annual report 2020—2021[R]. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, 2021.
[3]	AGHABABAEI M, KOLIOU M, WATSON M, et al. Quantifying post-disaster business recovery through Bayesian methods[J]. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2021, 17(6): 838-856.
[4]	LI Peiran, LI Xueqian, WANG Xin, et al. Seismic resilience evaluation of reinforced concrete frame considering the effect of mainshock-aftershock sequences[J]. Applied Sciences, 2023, 13(23): DOI:10.3390/app132312620.
[5]	CHEN Xinglin, YU Longxing, LIN Weidong, et al. Urban resilience assessment from the multidimensional perspective using dynamic Bayesian network: a case study of Fujian province, China[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2023, 238: DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2023.109469.
[6]	REN Hao, RONG Chong, TIAN Qinhu, et al. Evaluation model for seismic resilience of urban building groups[J]. Buildings, 2023, 13(10): DOI:10.3390/buildings13102502.
[7]	SALADO C J G, BRUNEAU M, ELHAMI-KHORASANI N. Functionality measures for quantification of building seismic resilience index[J]. Engineering Structures, 2022, 253: DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2024.108601.
[8]	SANDERSON D, COX D, NARAHARISETTY G. A spatially explicit decision support framework for parcel- and community-level resilience assessment using Bayesian networks[J]. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 2022, 7(5): 531-551.
[9]	KAMESHWAR S, COX D T, BARBOSA A R, et al. Probabilistic decision-support framework for community resilience: Incorporating multi-hazards, infrastructure interdependencies, and resilience goals in a Bayesian network[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2019, 191: DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2019.106568.
[10]	金赟赟, 李杰. 基于易损性贝叶斯网络的群体建筑快速震害预测[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2020, 29(5): 64-72.
	JIN Yunyun, LI Jie. Rapid earthquake damage prediction for group buildings based on vulnerability Bayesian network[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2020, 29(5): 64-72.
[11]	张涵. 社区建筑群落的抗震韧性评估研究[D]. 大连: 大连理工大学, 2021.
	ZHANG Han. Research on evaluation of seismic resilience for community building portfolio[D]. Dalian: Dalian University of Technology, 2021.
[12]	贾明明, 袁昊祯, 彭慧君. 松原地区群体建筑结构地震响应及抗震韧性分析[J]. 地震工程学报, 2022, 44(3):509-517.
	JIA Mingming, YUAN Haozhen, PENG Huijun. Earthquake response and seismic resilience of group building structures in the Songyuan area[J]. China Earthguake Engineering Journal, 2022, 44(3): 509-517.
[13]	王威, 贾文雪, 缪惠全, 等. 基于“源体力”理论的城市抗震安全韧性评估[J/OL]. 工程力学:1-12. [2024-07-14]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2595.O3.20240710.2113.009.html
	WANG Wei, JIA Wenxue, MIAO Huiquan, et al. Urban seismic safety resilience evaluation based on "risk source-risk exposure-mitigation force" theory[J/OL]. Engineering Mechanics: 1-12. [2024-07-14]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2595.O3.20240710.2113.009.html

指标	序号	分类描述
场地类型	1	I类
	2	II类
	3	III类
	4	IV类
结构类型	1	钢混结构
	2	混合结构
	3	砖木结构
	4	其他结构
结构层数	1	[1,2]主要指老旧房屋
	2	[3,6]
	3	[7,8]
	4	[9,10]
	5	(10,∞)
建造年代 /年份	1	(0,1970)
	2	[1970,1979]
	3	[1980,1989]
	4	[1990,1999]
	5	[2000,2025]
建筑类型	1	医疗卫生、教育、行政办公建筑
	2	城镇住宅、文化娱乐建筑
	3	环境卫生、餐饮服务建筑
	4	体育、园林等其他建筑

破坏等级	基本完好	轻微破坏	中等破坏	严重破坏	倒塌
小震	90.52	9.47	0.01	—	—
中震	29.09	45.51	25.39	0.01	—
大震	5.98	29.43	44.22	20.34	0.03

目标地震	一星	二星	三星
小震	9	25	66
中震	24	43	31
大震	51	22	13

[1]	柳青, 沈恬. 基于贝叶斯网络的生物样本无人机运输风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(1): 16-24.
[2]	杨震, 梁峻铭, 郭梨, 董晓斌. 基于混合因果逻辑的化工园区雷击储罐风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(9): 174-182.
[3]	陈伟, 赵卓雅, 牛力, 温道云, 罗浩. 强降雨情景下附着式升降脚手架事故致因IFRAM-BN模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(7): 44-52.
[4]	姜子建, 周荣义, 石云霄, 刘灿, 杨璧帆, 郑时求. 基于贝叶斯网络的危化品爆炸事故隐患关联与溯源分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(6): 173-180.
[5]	王燕青, 吴思雨, 杨可月. 应急情境下管制员情境意识可靠性研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(6): 207-215.
[6]	陈超, 谭心鑫, 王迪, 李长俊. 油库抗震韧性动态评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(4): 87-92.
[7]	卢飞, 张健, 赵二丽. 基于模糊贝叶斯和事件树的配对进近碰撞风险研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(12): 64-73.
[8]	刘正刚, 刘晨曦, 阮渊鹏. 区块链技术应用中的安全屏障模式研究综述[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(10): 105-115.
[9]	刘富鹏, 杨九, 吴世博, 徐立新. 基于FDHHFLTS-BN的海底管道泄漏失效风险定量分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(1): 166-170.
[10]	孙逸林, 郑小强, 刘险峰, 贺艳艳, 王冶. 基于AcciMap模型的燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(7): 140-146.
[11]	吴海涛, 刘月, 杜彗敏. 小样本条件下地铁运营事故致因推理模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(3): 134-140.
[12]	付姗姗, 张悦, 席永涛, 翁金贤. 多因素耦合下长江口水域交通事故致因链分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(3): 60-67.
[13]	马港, 徐晓楠, 郭小芳, 张志珍, 徐子豪. 基于贝叶斯网络的电镀企业火灾事故情景推演[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(2): 202-208.
[14]	张冰鉴, 苏秦, 刘海龙. 基于FTA-BN的云ERP不安全事件的人因失误分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(2): 38-47.
[15]	靳慧斌, 朱孟昌, 马明霞. 基于ACE-BN的通勤飞行事故/事件诱因分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(2): 96-102.

城市建筑群抗震韧性集成评估方法

Integrated evaluation methods of seismic resilience of urban group buildings

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 15

参考文献 13

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价