多灾害耦合下灾害演化过程智能推演

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0370

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 227-233.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0370

多灾害耦合下灾害演化过程智能推演

李莎莎¹^,²(), 崔铁军¹^,^**(), 张晶²^,³

¹ 沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院,辽宁沈阳 110159
² 清华大学安全科学学院,北京 100084
³ 应急管理部灾害事故调查评估应急管理部重点实验室,北京 100084

收稿日期:2025-08-11 修回日期:2025-11-09 出版日期:2026-01-28
通信作者:
** 崔铁军(1983—),男,辽宁沈阳人,博士,教授,主要从事系统可靠性及系统故障演化理论方面的研究。E-mail:ctj.159@163.com。
作者简介:
李莎莎 (1988—),女,辽宁盘锦人,博士,副教授,主要从事系统安全与安全管理等方面的研究。E-mail:lsslntu@163.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3016800); 辽宁省属本科高校基本科研业务费专项资金(LJ212410144051); 辽宁省属本科高校基本科研业务费专项资金(LJ212410144032)

Intelligent deductive for disaster evolution process under multi-disasters coupling

LI Shasha¹^,²(), CUI Tiejun¹^,^**(), ZHANG Jing²^,³

¹ School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Shenyang Ligong University, Shenyang Liaoning 110159, China
² School of Safety Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
³ Key Laboratory of Investigation on Disaster and Accident, Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2025-08-11 Revised:2025-11-09 Published:2026-01-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为有效预测灾害及评估干预措施效果,提出多灾害耦合演化智能推演方法,论述灾害过程与多灾害耦合、演化智能推演的优点和困难,描述灾害演化过程,提出智能推演方法,并以露天矿采掘过程为例,应用所提方法进行分析,验证其有效性。结果表明:多灾害耦合过程复杂多变,具有不确定、网络结构效应和时空分布差异等特征;系统故障演化理论能从概念描述、拓扑结构和数学分析角度为多灾害耦合演化智能推演提供支持;建立演化智能推演方法,给出步骤和数学模型,其能定性定量地推演多灾害耦合演化过程,发现隐藏灾害过程并涌现知识。

关键词: 多灾害耦合, 演化过程, 网络结构, 智能推演, 系统故障演化理论

Abstract:

In order to effectively predict disasters and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures, a multi-disaster coupling evolution intelligent deduction method was proposed. The disaster process, multi-disaster coupling, as well as the advantages and difficulties of evolutionary intelligent deduction, were discussed. The disaster evolution process was described, and an intelligent deduction method was established. Taking the mining process of an open-pit mine as an example, the proposed method was applied for analysis, and its effectiveness was verified. The results show that the multi-disaster coupling process is complex and changeable, with characteristics such as uncertainty, network structure effect and spatio-temporal distribution difference. The system fault evolution theory can provide support for the multi-disaster coupling evolution intelligent deduction from the perspectives of conceptual description, topological structure and mathematical analysis. The evolutionary intelligent deduction method is established, and its steps and mathematical model are provided. This method can qualitatively and quantitatively deduce the multi-disaster coupling evolution process, discover hidden disaster processes and generate emergent knowledge.

Key words: multi-disaster coupling, evolution process, network structure, intelligent inference, system fault evolution theory

中图分类号:

X913安全系统学

李莎莎, 崔铁军, 张晶. 多灾害耦合下灾害演化过程智能推演[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(1): 227-233.

LI Shasha, CUI Tiejun, ZHANG Jing. Intelligent deductive for disaster evolution process under multi-disasters coupling[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(1): 227-233.

图/表 4

参考文献 11

[1]	吴森, 齐得旭, 李虎, 等. 基于灾害动态演化过程的管道滑坡灾害多因素耦合预警模型[J]. 水文地质工程地质, 2024, 51(6): 182-189.
	WU Sen, QI Dexu, LI Hu, et al. A multifactor coupled rarely-warning model for pipeline landslide hazards based on the dynamic evolutionary process of disaster[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2024, 51(6):182-189.
[2]	WU Xia, DU Mingxia, LIU Hanqing, et al. Coupled assessment and risk reconfiguration of debris hazards in natural gas pipeline incidents via multi-scale stochastic modeling[J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2025,200:DOI: 10.1016/J.PSEP.2025.107344.
[3]	张好, 敬小非, 毛菁鑫, 等. 暴雨山洪与山坪塘漫坝多灾害耦合风险分析[J]. 重庆科技学院学报:自然科学版, 2024, 26(2): 100-107.
	ZHANG Hao, JING Xiaofei, MAO Jingxin, et al. Analysis of multi hazard coupling risk caused by mountain flood and dam over flow in shanping pond[J]. Journal of Chongqing University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition, 2024, 26(2):100-107.
[4]	YIN Hao, XIAN Yong, FAN Qian, et al. Disaster resilience assessment and key drivers of resilience evolution in mountainous cities facing geo-disasters: a case study of disaster-prone counties in western Sichuan[J]. Sustainability, 2025, 17(8):DOI: 10.3390/SU17083291.
[5]	WANG Xu, HU Saitao, ZHANG Shengzhu, et al. Study on the spatial and temporal evolution of hydrogen-blended natural gas leakage and flare-up in the typical semi-open space[J]. Fire, 2025, 8(4):DOI: 10.3390/FIRE8040146.
[6]	ZHANG Ruoyi, ZHOU Jiawen, SUN Fei, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of urban resilience against disasters: a dual perspective of urban systems and resilience capacities[J]. Land, 2025, 14(4):DOI: 10.3390/LAND14040741.
[7]	崔铁军, 李莎莎. 系统故障演化过程最终事件状态及发生概率研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(8): 1-7. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.08.001
	CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Study on target event state and occurrence probability of system fault evolution process[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31 (8): 1-7. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.08.001
[8]	郭付三, 袁巧红, 殷坤龙, 等. 矿山小流域地质环境灾害链及系统治理技术研究:以豫西小秦岭地区金矿开采为例[J]. 金属矿山, 2010(4): 146-152.
	GUO Fusan, YUAN Qiaohong, YIN Kunlong, et al. Research on geological environment disaster chain and systemic treatment technology of mine gully area: a case study of exploitation of Xiaoqinling gold mine at Western Henan[J]. Metal Mine, 2010(4): 146-152.
[9]	CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Research on disaster evolution process in open-pit mining area based on space fault network[J]. Neural Computing and Applications, 2020, 32(21): 16 737-16 754.
[10]	崔铁军, 李莎莎. 系统多功能状态表达式构建及其置信度研究[J]. 智能系统学报, 2023, 18 (1): 124-130.
	CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Construction of a system multi-function state expression and its confidence[J]. CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems, 2023, 18 (1): 124-130.
[11]	崔铁军, 李莎莎. 量子态叠加的事件发生柔性逻辑统一表达式研究[J]. 西北工业大学学报, 2024, 42 (4): 774-782.
	CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Study on unified expression of event occurrence flexible logic based on superposition quantum states[J]. Journal of Northwestern Polytechnical University, 2024, 42 (4): 774-782. doi: 10.1051/jnwpu/20244240774

多灾害耦合下灾害演化过程智能推演

Intelligent deductive for disaster evolution process under multi-disasters coupling

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 4

参考文献 11

相关文章 10

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	崔铁军, 李莎莎, 邓文浩. 基于量子思想描述的系统故障演化过程[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(5): 1-7.
[2]	白鹏飞, 李今禾, 段倩倩. 积石山地震应急协作网络结构特征[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(2): 227-235.
[3]	李光华, 刘名. 基于信息融合技术的水电站应急指挥体系研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(S1): 280-284.
[4]	董欣静, 蔡劲松. 事故灾难应急协同网络的结构特征及优化策略研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(10): 229-237.
[5]	陈为公, 王丽占, 张永亮, 王相丹. 突发公共卫生事件政府协同治理网络韧性评价:以新冠疫情防治为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(4): 140-147.
[6]	崔铁军, 李莎莎. 系统故障演化过程最终事件状态及发生概率研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(8): 1-7.
[7]	戢晓峰, 吴亚欣, 毛润彩, 张琪. 突发公共卫生事件下公交暴露风险辨识方法:以深圳应对新型冠状病毒肺炎为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 89-98.
[8]	李亚飞, 梁琛, 戴福青. 航路网关键节点识别及抗毁性分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(5): 115-121.
[9]	王炜，杜鑫，邵冠武，周超. 灾害应急网络系统中的风险信息传递与沟通[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2010, 20(9): 152-.
[10]	胡继华，章云龙，莫善军. 省域安全生产应急救援指挥平台框架体系研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2009, 19(1): 137-.