基于改进CREAM的着舰阶段复杂任务环境飞行员人因失误预测

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.02.0102

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高着舰阶段安全性,基于认知可靠性和失误分析法(CREAM)开展着舰阶段复杂任务环境下飞行员人因失误预测研究。结合着舰阶段飞行员动作流程,修正原始CREAM方法中共同绩效因子(CPC)定义,提出基于改进CREAM方法的飞行员人因失误概率预测方法,描述着舰阶段飞行员所处的情景环境;引入环境影响指数与效应影响指数,表征不同任务环境对飞行员认知功能的影响;结合着舰阶段实际情景环境,设计并开展模拟着舰评估试验;通过分析被试人员的脑电、眼动、心电、肌电数据及美国航空航天局任务负荷指数(NASA-TLX)量表数据等特征指标,评估被试人员在不同环境下的负荷水平,进而计算不同认知功能的效应影响指数,预测人因失误概率。研究结果表明:所提出的飞行员人因失误概率预测方法,使用客观数据评估替代专家主观评价,能够提高预测结果真实性,该方法可以预测20种不同环境因素影响下飞行员人因失误概率。

关键词: 认知可靠性和失误分析法(CREAM), 着舰阶段, 飞行员, 复杂任务环境, 人因失误, 认知功能

Abstract:

To improve the safety of aircraft landing phase, this study investigates the prediction of pilot human error during the carrier landing phase complex task environments based on CREAM. Based on the pilot operational workflows during the carrier landing phase, this work recalibrates the original Common Performance Condition (CPC) factors in CREAM, and proposes an improved approach for predicting the probability of human error in pilots based on the improved CREAM method, describing the situational environment in which the pilot is located during the carrier landing phase. It introduces an Environmental Impact Index and Effect Impact Index to characterize the influence of various task environments on pilots' cognitive functions. A simulated carrier landing assessment experiment is designed and conducted based on the actual situational environment during the carrier landing phase. By analyzing characteristic indicators such as electroencephalogram(EEG), eye-tracking, electrocardiogram(ECG), and electromyography(EMG)data, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index(NASA-TLX)scale data of the subjects, the load level of the subjects in different environments is assessed, and then the effect impact index of different cognitive functions is calculated to predict the probability of human error. The results demonstrate that the proposed method for predicting probability of human error in pilots can improve the accuracy of prediction results by using objective data assessment, which instead of experts' subjective evaluations. This method can predict the probability of human error in pilots under the influence of 20 different environmental factors.

Key words: cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM), carrier landing phase, pilot, complex task environments, human error, cognitive function

中图分类号:

X949

刘威成, 孙有朝, 金恒, 陈梓畅. 基于改进CREAM的着舰阶段复杂任务环境飞行员人因失误预测[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(2): 44-51.

LIU Weicheng, SUN Youchao, JIN Heng, CHEN Zichang. Prediction of pilot human errors during the carrier landing phase under complex task environments based on an improved CREAM method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(2): 44-51.

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认知功能	失效模式	基本失效概率值
观察	观察目标错误	0.001
	错误辨识	0.007
	观察没有进行	0.007
解释	决策失误	0.01
	延迟解释	0.01
	诊断失误	0.02
计划	优先权不正确	0.01
计划	计划不当	0.01
执行	动作方式不正确	0.003
	动作时间不正确	0.003
	动作目标错误	0.000 5
	动作顺序错误	0.003
	动作遗漏	0.003

CPC因子名称	定义
着舰指导的完善性	驾驶舱内部的显示、告警信息等着舰指导信息的完善程度
着舰任务工作环境	不同的物理环境因素对于飞行员执行着舰任务的影响程度
人机界面显示元素的合理性	座舱内部人机界面设计方案对飞行员信息获取效率及人机交互能力的影响
着舰外界条件的复杂性	执行着舰任务时外界海况和天气条件对于飞行员的影响
需要同时关注的目标数	飞行员需同时关注的目标点数量的变化,对着舰任务产生的影响
着舰任务的可用时间	飞行员从开始进场到最终接触甲板所能利用的时间长短对着舰任务的影响
着舰任务时段	飞行员在一天中不同时段执行着舰任务对于安全性的影响
飞行员培训和经验的充分性	飞行员在执行着舰任务前的飞行经验及所接受的培训程度
着舰任务各成员的合作质量	飞行员与舰上机组人员间的沟通水平、交流质量对着舰任务的影响

任务阶段	飞行员动作	观察	解释	计划	执行
进场阶段	调整油门杆,维持速度	—	—	√	√
	操纵中央驾驶杆,保持着舰参考高度与迎角	—	—	√	√
	完成着舰相关检查,放下尾钩和起落架,切断武器开关	—	√	—	√
	监控飞机速度、高度、迎角等飞行参数	√	—	—	—
任务阶段	飞行员动作	观察	解释	计划	执行
下滑阶段	横向操纵中央驾驶杆,转弯	—	—	√	√
	监控姿态、航向等	√	—	—	—
	判断着舰点距离	—	√	—	—
	与着舰指挥官沟通,沿正确下滑道下滑	√	—	—	√
	观察菲涅尔透镜,保持飞机高度	√		√	—
	控制驾驶杆对准着舰跑道中线	—	—	√	√
拦阻阶段	接触航母甲板后,将油门推到最大,勾住拦阻索,关闭发动机,完全制动	—	—	—	√
拦阻阶段	若接收复飞指令,保持油门最大再次起飞	—	√	√	√

CPC因子	环境因素设置
着舰指导的完善性	告警形式1(告警文字闪烁)
	告警形式2(告警文字常亮)
	告警形式3(告警文字闪烁伴有语音提示)
	告警形式4(仅有语音提示)
着舰任务工作环境	低温(座舱温度20 ℃)
	常温(座舱温度25 ℃)
	高温(座舱温度30 ℃)
	有噪声
	无噪声
人机界面显示元素的合理性	小号文字、图符
	正常文字、图符
	大号文字、图符
着舰条件的复杂性	平静海面
	轻微波浪、小雨
	大海浪、大雨
需要同时关注的目标数	正常模式
需要同时关注的目标数	简化模式(仅保留关键数值)
着舰任务时段	日间航行
着舰任务时段	夜间航行

认知功能	认知功能定义	负荷种类
观察	飞行员对环境、任务信息等的观察和监控能力	视觉负荷
解释	飞行员对观察到的信息进行分析和理解的过程	脑力负荷
计划	飞行员根据解释的信息制定行动策略或应对方案	心理负荷
执行	飞行员将规划好的策略付诸实施的过程	操作负荷