基于DBN的深水井控人机界面系统可靠性分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.021

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 124-129.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.021

基于DBN的深水井控人机界面系统可靠性分析

陈洁^1,2, 陈国明¹ 教授, 李新宏¹, 杨冬冬¹, 耿凯月¹, 刘长鑫¹

1 中国石油大学(华东) 海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心, 山东青岛 266580
2 天津航空有限责任公司安全监察部,天津 300300

收稿日期:2017-10-20 出版日期:2018-01-28 发布日期:2020-09-28
作者简介:陈洁 (1991—),女,山东东营人,安全科学与工程硕士,主要研究方向为海洋油气安全技术。E-mail:Jane_Chenjie@126.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC0804501)。

Reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system based on DBN

CHEN Jie^1,2, CHEN Guoming¹, LI Xinhong¹, YANG Dongdong¹, GENG Kaiyue¹, LIU Changxin¹

1 Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580,China
2 Safety Supervision Department, Tianjin Airlines Corporate, Tianjin 300300, China

Received:2017-10-20 Online:2018-01-28 Published:2020-09-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为改善深水井控人机配合情况,运用动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)方法分析深水井控人机界面系统的可靠性。基于深水井控人机交互流程,构建系统安全屏障结构图,并转化为对应的DBN模型;依据DBN方法的时间属性,研究系统及各子系统不维修与维修状态下可靠度时间分布;借助贝叶斯后验推理及敏感性分析能力,辨识人机界面系统薄弱风险点。研究结果表明:维修因素是影响深水井控人机界面系统可靠性的关键因素;维修条件下,人因可靠性对深水井控人机界面系统可靠性的影响最大。

关键词: 深水井控, 人机界面, 动态贝叶斯网络(DBN), 安全屏障, 可靠性分析

Abstract: For the sake of improving human-machine cooperation, a reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system was carried out based on DBN approach. According to human-machine interaction procedures, safety barrier structure of the system was built and converted into a DBN model. Based on time-property of DBN, relationships between reliability of both system and subsystems and time, under non-maintenance and maintenance conditions, were analyzed. Using posterior reasoning and sensitivity analysis of DBN, weak risk points of human-machine surface system were identified. The results show that the maintenance is the key factor affecting the reliability of human-machine surface system, and that under the maintenance condition, human factor has the greatest influence on the reliability of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system.

Key words: deep-water drilling, human-machine interface, dynamic Bayesian network(DBN), safety barrier, reliability analysis

中图分类号:

X913.4

陈洁, 陈国明, 李新宏, 杨冬冬, 耿凯月, 刘长鑫. 基于DBN的深水井控人机界面系统可靠性分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(1): 124-129.

CHEN Jie, CHEN Guoming, LI Xinhong, YANG Dongdong, GENG Kaiyue, LIU Changxin. Reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system based on DBN[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(1): 124-129.

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基于DBN的深水井控人机界面系统可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system based on DBN

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