机场终端区航空器飞行冲突风险预测方法研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.01.028

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 157-162.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.01.028

机场终端区航空器飞行冲突风险预测方法研究

高扬, 研究员, 王向章, 郑涤滨

中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津 300300

收稿日期:2016-10-08 修回日期:2016-11-20 发布日期:2020-11-23
作者简介:高扬 (1962—),女,辽宁沈阳人,硕士,研究员,主要从事航空安全管理、安全信息、人为因素、事故调查等方面的教学与科研工作。E-mail:gycauc@hotmail.com。

Research on method for predicting risk of aircraft flight conflict in airport terminal

GAO Yang, WANG Xiangzhang, ZHENG Dibin

Research Institute of Civil Aviation Safety, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China

Received:2016-10-08 Revised:2016-11-20 Published:2020-11-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了准确预测机场终端区航空器飞行冲突风险,以便能最大程度地利用低空空域资源,通过整合考虑加速度的运输飞机轨迹模型和通用飞机随机轨迹模型,建立终端区航空器飞行冲突风险预测模型。以某机场为例,采用C语言编写仿真程序,模拟该机场终端区跑道中心20 km范围内的航空器飞行轨迹。预测不同通航活动区设置条件下的飞行冲突风险,并确定运输机场周边通航活动区范围。预测结果显示,飞行高度限制为1 000 m时,将案例机场的该低空空域划设为非管制的监视空域,通用飞机与运输飞机之间的飞行冲突风险小于2×10^-5,处于可接受安全水平。

关键词: 通用航空, 风险预测, 计算机模拟, 终端区, 飞行冲突风险

Abstract: In order to accurately predict the flight conflict risk of aircraft in the airport terminal and use the low-altitude airspace resources to the full, a model was built for predicting risk of aircraft flight conflict in airport terminal after integrating the transport aircraft trajectory model considering the acceleration and the random trajectory model of general aircraft. The model was applied to a certain airport in China. A program was complied,by using the C language,for the simulation.The aircraft trajectories within 20 km range of the terminal centered on the runway were simulated by computer. The risk of flight conflict was predicted for different traffic zone settings. The activity areas for general aircrafts near the terminal were determined by the computer simulation. The result shows that the flight conflict risk between the general aircraft and the transport aircraft is low than 2×10^-5 for a aircraft taking-off or landing and meets the acceptable level of safety, when the flying height is limited to 1 000 m and the low-altitude airspace is designated as a monitoring airspace under no control.

Key words: general aviation, risk profile, computer simulation, terminal area, flight collision risk

中图分类号:

X949
V328

高扬, 研究员, 王向章, 郑涤滨. 机场终端区航空器飞行冲突风险预测方法研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(1): 157-162.

GAO Yang, WANG Xiangzhang, ZHENG Dibin. Research on method for predicting risk of aircraft flight conflict in airport terminal[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(1): 157-162.

参考文献

[1] REICH P G. Analysis of long-range air traffic systems:separation standards I, II and III[J]. Journal of the Institute of Navigation,1966,19 (1):88-98;19(2):169-186;19(3):331-347.
[2] BROOKER P. Lateral collision risk in air traffic track systems:a ‘Post-Reich’ event model [J]. Journal of Navigation,2003,56 (3):399-410.
[3] 高扬,刘单单. 低空开放后终端区航空器碰撞风险模型研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2014,24(6):141-145.
GAO Yang,LIU Dandan. Research on model for aircraft collision risk in terminal area after low altitude open [J].China Safety Science Journal, 2014, 24(6):141-145.
[4] 周建,周启,蒋志伟.平行航路侧向间隔安全评估研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2014,24(8):26-30.
ZHOU Jian, ZHOU Qi, JIANG Zhiwei. Study on safety assessment of parallel route based on lateral separation model [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2014, 24(8):26-30.
[5] 卢飞,张兆宁. 近距平行跑道配对进近纵向碰撞风险安全评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(8):108-113.
LU Fei, ZHANG Zhaoning. Longitudinal collision risk safety assessment of paired approach to close spaced parallel runways[J]. Chinese Journal of SafetyScience, 2013,23(8):108-113.
[6] 张兆宁,佐江丽. 基于布朗运动的自由飞行下碰撞风险研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2012,22(8):43-47.
ZHANG Zhaoning, ZUO Jiangli. Study on free flight collision risk based onBrownian motion [J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Science, 2012,22(8):43-47.
[7] 王超.飞行程序运行评估的理论方法及仿真应用研究[D]. 南京:南京航空航天大学,2012.
WANG Chao. Research on evaluation theory and simulation application of flight procedure operation [D].Nanjing: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2012.
[8] 张兆宁,王莉莉. 飞行间隔安全评估引论[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2009:112-131.
ZHANG Zhaoning, WANG Lili. The introduction to flight interval safety assessment [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2009:112-131.
[9] Boeing 737-800 performance engineers manual [Z], 1998:165-445.
[10] User manual for the base of aircraft data (Bada) revision 3.12[M]. New York: Eurocontrol Experimental Centre, 2014:34-58.
[11] 付职忠. 简明空气动力学[M]. 北京:中国民航出版社,2008:80-101.
FU Zhizhong. Concise aerodynamics [M].Beijing: China Civil Aviation Press, 2008:80-101.
[12] HUESCHEN Richard M,KNOX Charles E. Modeling of instrument landing system (ILS) localizer signal on runway 25L international airport at los angeles [R]. NASA, 1994.
[13] IB-TM-2010—002 ,空域安全评估方法指导材料[S].
IB-TM-2010—002, Guide material of airspace safety assessment methods [S].
[14] Doc9859-safety management manual [Z]. International Civil Aviation Organization, 2013: 28-29.

机场终端区航空器飞行冲突风险预测方法研究

Research on method for predicting risk of aircraft flight conflict in airport terminal

PDF

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 14

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	熊晓夏, 刘擎超, 沈钰杰, 蔡英凤, 陈龙. 基于LSTM-BF的高速公路交通事故风险模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(5): 170-176.
[2]	赵挺生, 庞奇志, 姜雯茜. 基于数据库与支持向量机的施工升降机安全风险预测[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(4): 11-17.
[3]	白鹏, 陈霖峰, 王玺, 龚宇, 蒋淞榕, 周勍琪. 基于点融合的进场程序优化与航空器排序研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(12): 45-52.
[4]	张攀科, 罗帆. 通用航空安全监管演化博弈的系统动力学仿真[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(4): 43-50.
[5]	李楠, 强懿耕, 孙瑜, 邓人博. 终端区航空器异常轨迹识别研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(11): 21-27.
[6]	张兆宁, 李文雅. 终端区管制系统风险因素分析的DEMATEL-ISM模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(10): 86-91.
[7]	王岩韬, 唐建勋, 赵嶷飞. 基于粗糙集和支持向量机的航班运行风险预测[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(9): 158-163.
[8]	刘增辉，高谦，姚维信，靳学奇. 采场整体稳定性可靠度分析与风险预测[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2012, 22(8): 70-.
[9]	王永刚，孙瑶. 基于BN的FTA在通用航空风险评价中的应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2010, 20(3): 19-.
[10]	张晓莉. 机场终端区飞行流量的优化算法研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2010, 20(11): 102-.
[11]	李晓豁. 滚筒设计参数对粉尘爆炸率影响的研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2007, 17(6): 103-.
[12]	谈婕. 有机硅工厂火灾安全评价研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2007, 17(4): 125-.
[13]	邢书仁，吴兵，周心权，张莉聪. 区域模拟与巷道火灾一维烟流流动模拟耦合方法初探[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2004, 14(2): 24-.
[14]	景国勋，段振伟，贾智伟. 胶带输送机运输事故树可靠性的计算机模拟[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2003, 13(7): 71-.