反脆弱机制在安全风险管控中的策略研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为有效防控安全风险,结合脆弱性研究成果,借鉴著名风险管理专家纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布著作《反脆弱——从不确定性中获益》中的风险理论体系,将反脆弱机制的思想运用到安全风险防控策略的研究中,阐释新的安全风险防控意识,提出基于反脆弱的安全风险防控杠铃策略。风险偏好端采用开发冗余、理性试错的防控措施;风险厌恶端采用脆弱性控制措施,并实例量化研究地铁站点火灾的脆弱性,运用突变理论构建脆弱性评价模型,根据评价结果给出相应建议,用以指导地铁运营火灾风险管理。研究表明:反脆弱视角下的安全风险管控既要考虑系统可能遭受的损失,也要积极探索风险可能带来的收益机会。作为反脆弱的重要环节,控制脆弱性是从杠铃策略中对风险极端厌恶的角度来实现安全风险的管控。

关键词: 反脆弱, 安全风险管控, 脆弱性, 杠铃策略, 突变理论

Abstract: In order to effectively control safety risks, antifragile mechanism was applied into research of safety risk prevention and control strategies based on vulnerability research and risk theory system from Antifragile-Things that Gain from Disorder written by NASSIM Nicholas Taleb. New awareness of safety risk prevention was explained and barbell strategy was put forward. For risk preference side, redundancy and rational trial was adopted while for risk aversion side, vulnerability control was adopted, and a quantitative study was made on vulnerability of subway stations in fire. Finally, a vulnerability evaluation model was constructed by using catastrophe theory, and corresponding suggestions were given according to evaluation results to guide fire risk management for subway operation. The research shows that safety risk management and control from antifragile perspective should not only consider possible losses of the system, but also actively explore potential profit opportunities brought by risks. As an important part of antifragile, controlling vulnerability is a way to manage safety risk from the angle of extreme risk aversion in barbell strategy.

Key words: antifragile, safety risk management, vulnerability, barbell strategy, catastrophe theory

中图分类号:

X915.2

宋守信, 陈明利, 翟怀远. 反脆弱机制在安全风险管控中的策略研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12): 8-15.

SONG Shouxin, CHEN Mingli, ZHAI Huaiyuan. Research on strategy of antifragile mechanism in safety risk management[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(12): 8-15.

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