暴雨干扰下地铁系统脆弱性形成机制

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.06.2067

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为有效预防暴雨极端天气给地铁系统运营造成的极大风险,基于文献调研和专家访谈,从人、设备、环境、安全管理和应急5个方面,建立暴雨干扰下地铁系统脆弱性指标体系,得到20个影响因子;运用解释结构模型-交叉影响矩阵相乘法(ISM-MICMAC),构建暴雨干扰下地铁系统脆弱性形成机制模型,论证各影响因子的驱动力和依赖度;以郑州地铁为例进行分析并提出应对策略。结果表明:地铁系统脆弱性可划分为5个层级;教育培训、规章制度是最深层次的影响因素,控制和调度这2种因素能够缓解、调节其他因素带来的不利影响;工作人员的业务水平和安全管理意识是中间层脆弱性因素;其余因素都处于ISM的最上层,是直接影响因素。

关键词: 暴雨干扰, 地铁系统, 脆弱性, 形成机制, 解释结构模型(ISM), 交叉影响矩阵相乘法(MICMAC)

Abstract:

In order to effectively prevent major risks caused by extreme stormy weather to metro system operation, based on literature research and expert interviews, a metro system vulnerability index system under storm disturbance was established from five aspects: people, equipment, environment, safety management and emergency response, and 20 influencing factors were obtained. Then, a formation mechanism model of metro system vulnerability was established by using ISM-MICMAC, and driving force and dependency of each factor were demonstrated. Finally, with Zhengzhou subway as an example, the model was verified and countermeasures were proposed. The results show that the vulnerability of metro system can be divided into 5 layers. Educational training and regulations are the deepest influencing factors, and controlling and scheduling these two factors can alleviate and adjust adverse effects of the others. Staff's operational level and safety management awareness are middle layer ones, while the rest are in uppermost layer of ISM and direct influencing factors.

Key words: storm disturbance, metro system, vulnerability, formation mechanism, interpretative structural model(ISM), matrix of cross impact multiplications applied to classification (MICMAC)

赵露薇, 王青娥. 暴雨干扰下地铁系统脆弱性形成机制[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(6): 193-199.

ZHAO Luwei, WANG Qing'e. Study on vulnerability formation mechanism of metro system under storm disturbance[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(6): 193-199.

图/表 5

表1

暴雨干扰下地铁系统的脆弱性的影响因素

类别		影响因素
人的行为	工作人员	业务水平 $V 1$
	工作人员	安全管理意识 $V 2$
	乘客	乘车环境风险认知 $V 3$
	乘客	安全防护意识 $V 4$
设备设施	设备设施	运行状态 $V 5$
		性能 $V 6$
		防护 $V 7$
		关联性 $V 8$
环境	自然环境	暴雨/洪涝 $V 9$
	运营环境	地铁员工的工作环境 $V 10$
		乘客的乘坐环境 $V 11$
		暴雨环境下的大客流冲击 $V 12$
安全管理	安全管理	教育培训 $V 13$
		规章制度 $V 14$
		国家法律法规 $V 15$
		自身监控监察 $V 16$
		组织结构 $V 17$
应急救援	应急救援	应急资源保障 $V 18$
		应急处置效率 $V 19$
		应急管理计划 $V 20$

表1

表2

表3

图1

图2

参考文献 17

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V	V₁	V₂	V₃	V₄	V₅	V₆	V₇	V₈	V₉	V₁₀	V₁₁	V₁₂	V₁₃	V₁₄	V₁₅	V₁₆	V₁₇	V₁₈	V₁₉	V₂₀
V₁	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V₂	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V₃	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₄	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₅	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₆	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₇	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₈	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₉	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V₁₀	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₁₁	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₁₂	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₁₃	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V	V₁	V₂	V₃	V₄	V₅	V₆	V₇	V₈	V₉	V₁₀	V₁₁	V₁₂	V₁₃	V₁₄	V₁₅	V₁₆	V₁₇	V₁₈	V₁₉	V₂₀
V₁₄	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
V₁₆	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
V₁₇	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
V₁₈	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
V₁₉	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V₂₀	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

V	V₁	V₂	V₃	V₄	V₅	V₆	V₇	V₈	V₉	V₁₀	V₁₁	V₁₂	V₁₃	V₁₄	V₁₅	V₁₆	V₁₇	V₁₈	V₁₀	V₂₀	D
V₁	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9
V₂	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9
V₃	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
V₄	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
V₅	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
V₆	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
V₇	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
V₈	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
V₉	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
V₁₀	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
V₁₁	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
V₁₂	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
V₁₃	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10
V₁₄	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	11
V₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
V₁₆	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
V₁₇	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2
V₁₈	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2
V₁₉	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
V₂₀	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2
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