应急救援装备保障能力评估模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.01.0742

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为确保专业应急救援队伍的装备保障体系建设能够满足救援任务需求,并逐步适应复杂多变的灾害风险,通过文本挖掘法分析应急救援装备保障能力影响因素,基于技术人员保障能力、装备资源保障能力、设备设施保障能力、信息资源保障能力、管理体系保障能力5个方面,构建应急救援装备保障能力评估指标体系;为降低模糊性、随机性及主客观偏差对评价结果的影响,采用组合赋权法确定各评估指标权重,分别运用物元可拓与综合云模型构建综合评价方法,并以专业应急救援队伍A为例开展应用,验证模型的科学性和有效性。结果表明: 该指标体系能全面准确反映专业应急救援队伍应急救援装备保障能力综合水平,评价模型能够合理有效地评估应急救援装备保障能力等级,并反映当前救援队伍装备保障体系建设薄弱之处。

关键词: 应急救援装备保障能力, 评估模型, 专业应急救援队伍, 组合赋权, 物元可拓模型, 综合云模型

Abstract:

To ensure that the equipment support system of professional emergency rescue teams could meet the requirements of rescue tasks and gradually adapt to complex and variable disaster risks, a text mining method was applied to analyze the factors influencing the equipment support capacity of emergency rescue. Based on technical personnel support capability, equipment resource support capability, equipment and facility support capability, information resource support capability and management system support capability, an assessment index system for emergency rescue equipment support capacity was developed. To reduce the impact of fuzziness, randomness, and subjective-objective bias on assessment results, a combined weighting method was adopted to determine the weights of each assessment index. A comprehensive assessment method was established using the matter-element extension model and the integrated cloud model. Professional emergency rescue team A was selected as an example for application to verify the scientific validity and effectiveness of the model. The results show that the index system comprehensively and accurately reflects the overall level of emergency rescue equipment support capability of professional teams. The assessment model reasonably and effectively assesses the capability level and identifies weaknesses in the current equipment support system, providing improvement points and theoretical support for the development of the team's equipment support system.

Key words: emergency rescue equipment support capability, assessment model, professional emergency rescue team, combined weighting, matter-element extension model, integrated cloud model

中图分类号:

X928.03事故预防与预测

郑学召, 董贝贝, 童鑫, 王一硕. 应急救援装备保障能力评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(1): 194-201.

ZHENG Xuezhao, DONG Beibei, TONG Xin, WANG Yishuo. Emergency rescue equipment support capability assessment model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(1): 194-201.

图/表 11

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

表2

图5

图6

表3

表4

图7

参考文献 23

[1]	房玉东, 王文, 张志, 等. 安全韧性城市防灾减灾发展策略研究[J]. 中国工程科学, 2023, 25(1):1-9. doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2023.01.009
	FANG Yudong, WANG Wen, ZHANG Zhi, et al. Strategies for disaster prevention and mitigation in safety and resilient cities[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 2023, 25(1):1-9. doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2023.01.009
[2]	戴雨轩. 我国多元化巨灾保险模式初探[J]. 防灾减灾工程学报, 2024, 44(3):745-750.
	DAI Yuxuan. A preliminary study on China's diversified catastrophe insurance model[J]. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, 2024, 44(3):745-750.
[3]	中华人民共和国应急管理部. 关于印发《“十四五”应急救援力量建设规划》的通知[EB/OL].(2022-06-30). https://www.mem.gov.cn/gk/zfxxgkpt/fdzdgknr/202206/t20220630_417326.shtml.
[4]	郭建华, 陈健, 金浩, 等. 高原高寒地区灾害现场生存保障装备体系构建[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(12):129-136. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.021
	GUO Jianhua, CHEN Jian, JIN Hao, et al. Construction of living and safety support equipment system of systems at disaster sites in alpine and cold regions[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(12):129-136. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.021
[5]	李岩, 陈云翔, 罗承昆, 等. 基于FA-ER的装备保障资源供给能力评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(3):630-637. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.03.017
	LI Yan, CHEN Yunxiang, LUO Chengkun, et al. Evaluation method for the supply capability of equipment support resources based on FA-ER[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(3):630-637. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.03.017
[6]	张迪, 郭齐胜, 李智国, 等. 基于型号性能指标的武器装备体系作战能力评估方法[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2015, 40(5):12-16,20.
	ZHANG Di, GUO Qisheng, LI Zhiguo, et al. Evaluation method for weapon equipment system of operation capability based on performance index of type[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2015, 40(5):12-16, 20.
[7]	李宸, 彭维仕, 王念胜, 等. 基于效用函数法的抗震救灾装备性能评估[J]. 消防科学与技术, 2021, 40(6):892-897.
	LI Chen, PENG Weishi, WANG Niansheng, et al. Performance evaluation of earthquake relief equipment based on the utility function[J]. Fire Science and Technology, 2021, 40(6):892-897.
[8]	汪涛, 周文雅, 郭继唐, 等. 改进高斯云模型及其在装备保障体系能力评估中的应用[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2024, 46(5):1673-1681. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.05.20
	WANG Tao, ZHOU Wenya, GUO Jitang, et al. Improved Gaussian cloud model and its application in equipment support system capability evaluation[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2024, 46(5):1673-1681. doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.05.20
[9]	赵师, 屈洋. 基于Delphi-BP神经网络的装备保障能力评估[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2017, 42(2):130-133,138.
	ZHAO Shi, QU Yang. Evaluation of equipment supporting capacity based on Delphi-BP neural network[J]. Fire Science and Technology, 2017, 42(2):130-133,138.
[10]	张南, 牛腾冉, 徐建华, 等. 基于模糊综合评价法的某型布雷装备系统效能评估[J]. 兵器装备工程学报, 2017, 38(8):25-31.
	ZHANG Nan, NIU Tengran, XU Jianhua, et al. System effectiveness evaluation of a type mining equipment based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J]. Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering, 2017, 38(8):25-31.
[11]	沈丙振, 缪建明, 李晓菲, 等. 基于改进结构方程模型的陆军武器装备体系作战能力评估模型[J]. 兵工学报, 2021, 42(11):2503-2512. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2021.11.023
	SHEN Bingzhen, MIAO Jianming, LI Xiaofei, et al. Evaluation model of land force weapon equipment system combat capability based on improved SEM[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2021, 42(11):2503-2512. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2021.11.023
[12]	李海君, 徐廷学. 基于主成分分析的区域装备保障能力评估方法[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2022, 47(3):35-39.
	LI Haijun, XU Tingxue. Evaluation method of regional equipment support capability based on principal component analysis[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2022, 47(3):35-39.
[13]	宋星, 贾红丽, 赵汝东, 等. 基于ADC和模糊综合评判法的合成旅装备保障效能评估[J]. 兵器装备工程学报, 2019, 40(8):126-129.
	SONG Xing, JIA Hongli, ZHAO Rudong, et al. Effectiveness evaluation of synthetic brigade equipment support based on ADC and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J]. Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering, 2019, 40(8):126-129.
[14]	张耀龙, 阮拥军, 赵陆昊. 基于物元可拓模型的合成旅装备保障能力评估研究[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2023, 48(4):78-83,89.
	ZHANG Yaolong, RUAN Yongjun, ZHAO Luhao. Research on synthetic brigade equipment support capability evaluation based on matter-element extension model[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2023, 48(4):78-83,89.
[15]	国务院安委会办公室. 关于进一步加强国家安全生产应急救援队伍建设的指导意见[EB/OL].(2022-12-19). https://www.mem.gov.cn/gk/zfxxgkpt/fdzdgknr/202212/t20221229_437772.shtml.
[16]	DB11/T 1908—2021,专业应急救援队伍能力建设规范危险化学品[S].
	DB11/T 1908-2021, Specification for capability construction of professional emergency rescue team:hazardous chemicals[S].
[17]	严承希, 王军, 李晓杰. 基于优化随机游走模型的文本热点主题探测研究[J]. 情报科学, 2018, 36(1):118-123.
	YAN Chengxi, WANG Jun, LI Xiaojie. Research on text-oriented hot topics detection based on an optimized model of random walk[J]. Information Science, 2018, 36(1):118-123.
[18]	朱常安, 胡文华, 薛东方, 等. 基于组合赋权-灰色云模型的雷达质量评估[J]. 兵器装备工程学报, 2023, 44(5):133-141.
	ZHU Chang'an, HU Wenhua, XUE Dongfang, et al. Radar system quality evaluation based on a combination weighting-gray cloud model[J]. Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering, 2023, 44(5):133-141.
[19]	李凤, 张来斌, 董绍华, 等. 基于EWM-AHP-云模型的站场法兰系统密封失效风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(9):150-156. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.09.2040
	LI Feng, ZHANG Laibin, DONG Shaohua, et al. Research on sealing failure risk assessment of station flange system based on EWM-AHP-cloud mode[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(9):150-156. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.09.2040
[20]	范中洲, 李申川, 赵明. 基于变异系数-云物元模型的船舶进出港航路设计[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2023, 23(2):326-332.
	FAN Zhongzhou, LI Shenchuan, ZHAO Ming. Research on ship entry and exit route design based on the coefficient of variation cloud matter-element model[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2023, 23(2):326-332.
[21]	凡奥奇, 王万禄, 李树建, 等. 基于优化组合赋权的可拓学磷矿山岩体质量评价[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2024, 32(1):132-143. doi: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2024.01.146
	FAN Aoqi, WANG Wanlu, LI Shujian, et al. Evaluation of rock mass quality of phosphorite mines by topology based on optimal combination weight[J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2024, 32(1):132-143. doi: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2024.01.146
[22]	程方明, 王琛琛, 袁晓芳. 安全发展视角下城市应急管理能力评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(5):158-167. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2014
	CHENG Fangming, WANG Chenchen, YUAN Xiaofang. Evaluation of urban emergency management capabilities from perspective of safe development[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(5):158-167. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2014
[23]	蒋琳, 王双川, 刘莹, 等. 基于熵权-云模型的航空弹药保障能力评估[J]. 兵器装备工程学报, 2019, 40(7):180-184.
	JIANG Lin, WANG Shuangchuan, LIU Ying, et al. Evaluation for aviation ammunition support capability based on entropy weight and cloud model[J]. Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering, 2019, 40(7):180-184.

来源	所节选的部分评估指标
张耀龙等^[14]	数据支撑能力、指挥控制能力、供应保障能力、维修保障能力
汪涛等^[8]	保障指挥决策能力、维修保障人员能力、维修保障配套建设、装备测试、机动保障、抢救保障、信息交互人员能力、信息交互软件硬件
赵师等^[9]	人员信息化素质、骨干队伍建设、编配率、指挥能力、感知能力、抢修能力、生存能力、器材管理、器材储备、器材保障满足率与有效性、装备完好率与配套率、装备储备

指标名称	指标解释
装备可靠性	指应急救援装备在规定条件下和规定时间内,完成规定功能的能力,能够反映装备是否容易发生故障
装备完好率	指应急救援装备能调配参与救援任务的完好数量与现有数量比值,能够影响救援行动的效率与成功率
装备配备率	指应急救援装备的实际配备情况与所需配备要求的比率,能够反映队伍应急救援准备工作的充分程度
装备通用性	指通用型应急救援装备的配备情况,能够体现在应对多种类型突发事件时装备的适用性和灵活性
装备配备布局	指现有常规型、高精尖型应急救援装备的储备情况,能够反映装备技术先进程度与专业化水平
装备维修性	指在规定条件、规定时间,按规定的程序和方法进行装备检验、维保时,装备保持或恢复其规定状态的能力,能够反映装备维保工作质量与装备整体状态

指标	关联度					等级	指标	关联度					等级
指标	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	Ⅴ级	等级	指标	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	Ⅴ级	等级
C₁₁	0.490	-0.490	-0.745	-0.830	-0.872	Ⅰ	C₃₃	-0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500	-0.625	Ⅱ
C₁₂	-0.242	0.470	-0.265	-0.510	-0.632	Ⅱ	C₃₄	-0.159	0.233	-0.384	-0.589	-0.692	Ⅱ
C₁₃	-0.298	0.260	-0.130	-0.420	-0.565	Ⅱ	C₃₅	-0.181	0.283	-0.358	-0.572	-0.679	Ⅱ
C₁₄	-0.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	Ⅰ	C₄₁	-0.394	-0.231	0.143	-0.048	-0.286	Ⅲ
C₁₅	-0.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	Ⅰ	C₄₂	-0.222	0.400	-0.300	-0.533	-0.650	Ⅱ
C₂₁	0.056	-0.944	-0.972	-0.981	-0.986	Ⅰ	C₄₃	-0.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	Ⅰ
C₂₂	0.270	-0.730	-0.865	-0.910	-0.933	Ⅰ	C₄₄	0.083	-0.083	-0.541	-0.694	-0.771	Ⅰ
C₂₃	-0.361	-0.117	0.304	-0.232	-0.424	Ⅲ	C₅₁	-0.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	Ⅰ
C₂₄	-0.167	0.250	-0.375	-0.583	-0.688	Ⅱ	C₅₂	0.433	-0.433	-0.717	-0.811	-0.858	Ⅰ
C₂₅	0.250	-0.250	-0.625	-0.750	-0.813	Ⅰ	C₅₃	0.383	-0.617	-0.809	-0.872	-0.904	Ⅰ
C₂₆	-0.243	0.472	-0.264	-0.509	-0.632	Ⅱ	C₅₄	-0.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	Ⅰ
C₃₁	-0.181	0.283	-0.358	-0.572	-0.679	Ⅱ	C₅₅	-0.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000	Ⅰ
C₃₂	0.000	0.000	-0.500	-0.667	-0.750	Ⅰ	A	0.267	-5.743	-13.011	-16.585	-18.438	Ⅰ

指标	Ex	En	He
C₁₁	94.900	2.047	1.339
C₁₂	85.300	3.425	2.980
C₁₃	82.600	3.216	2.742
︙	︙	︙	︙
B₅	98.331	1.011	0.407