基于多准则决策方法的乡村应急能力影响因素研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.01.0442

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究基层应急能力“最后一公里”问题,提出一种引入灰色理论的多准则决策方法(MCDM),基于韧性理论,科学分析常规和非常规状态下的乡村应急能力。首先,在韧性视角下,优选文献归纳与实地调研后得到的影响因素,构建乡村应急能力影响因素模型;其次,以MCDM模型为框架,剖析影响因素的因果关系、逻辑层次和特征状态;最后,通过多准则决策分析,识别乡村应急能力和乡村韧性提升的关键因素。结果表明: 领导队伍结构的中心度为2.95、驱动力为6,是第1层因素;乡村网格化管理的中心度为3.08、驱动力为6,是第2层因素;规范性文件制定的中心度为2.7、驱动力为5,是第3层因素,乡村网络建设的中心度为3.54、驱动力为9,是第3层因素。领导队伍结构、乡村网格化管理、规范性文件制定、乡村网络建设构成决策交集,是乡村应急能力和韧性提升的关键抓手。

关键词: 多准则决策方法(MCDM), 应急能力, 乡村, 韧性, 灰色理论

Abstract:

To explore the "last-mile" problem of grassroots emergency response capacity, a MCDM based on grey theory was proposed to analyze the rural emergency response capacity under conventional and unconventional states based on the resilience theory. Firstly, from the perspective of resilience, the influencing factors obtained from literature review and field investigation were selected and optimized to construct a model of the influencing factors of rural emergency response capacity. Secondly, the MCDM model was used as a framework to analyze the causality, logical hierarchy, and characteristic state of the influencing factors. Finally, the key factors for the enhancement of the rural emergency response capacity and the resilience of rural villages were identified through the multi-criteria decision-making analysis. The results show that the centrality of leadership team structure is 2.95 and the driving force is 6, which is a tier 1 factor. The centrality of village grid management is 3.08 and the driving force is 6, which is a tier 2 factor. The centrality of normative document development is 2.7 and the driving force is 5, which is a tier 3 factor. The centrality of village network construction is 3.54 and the driving force is 9, which is a tier 3 factor. Leadership team structure, village grid management, normative document development and village network building constitute decision-making intersections, which are key catch-alls for the improvement of village emergency response capacity and resilience.

Key words: multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), emergency response capacity, rural, resilience, grey theory

中图分类号:

X954农、林、渔业安全

李华, 荆子昊, 吴立舟, 高子桐. 基于多准则决策方法的乡村应急能力影响因素研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(1): 202-208.

LI Hua, JING Zihao, WU Lizhou, GAO Zitong. Study of factors influencing rural emergency response capacity based on multi-criteria decision-making method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(1): 202-208.

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乡村应急能力	全过程均衡	韧性视角	影响因素
	准备	抵抗力	灾害数据库建设F₁;应急体系规划F₂;应急演练F₃;资源储备F₄;乡村文化观念F₅;规范性文件制定F₆	领导队伍结构F₂₈; 资金投入机制F₂₉
	预防	抵抗力	乡村两级信息畅通F₇;乡村网格化管理F₈;人员经验积累及知识储备F₉;乡村网络建设F₁₀;监测设施和系统F₁₁
	减缓	适应力	村干部危机指挥能力F₁₂;职能与岗位设置F₁₃;社会秩序F₁₄;居民安全意识F₁₅
	响应	适应力	乡村主干道及支路建设F₁₆;应急指挥中心数智化建设F₁₇;乡村企业和社会组织参与F₁₈;应急避难场所设置与应急转换F₁₉;应急队伍建设F₂₀
	恢复	恢复力	乡村民生保障F₂₁;事后评估与调查F₂₂;重建规划F₂₃;乡村产业支撑F₂₄
	学习	恢复力	应急资料库更新F₂₅;特定风险灾害应急知识补充F₂₆;针对性应急培训开展F₂₇

专家评价语义变量			专家权重语义变量
语义变量	灰数区间	标度	权重变量	灰数区间
无影响	[0.00,0.00]	0	不重要	[0.0,0.3]
轻微影响	[0.00,0.25]	1	稍不重要	[0.3,0.5]
弱影响	[0.25,0.50]	2	重要	[0.4,0.7]
强影响	[0.50,0.75]	3	较重要	[0.5,0.9]
较强影响	[0.75,1.00]	4	非常重要	[0.7,1.0]