关键词: 风险动物园, 蝴蝶效应, 风险二重性, 社会放大, 级联效应, 韧性治理

Abstract:

To prevent the occurrence of the butterfly effect in risk management, and in response to the scientific need to enhance the effectiveness of resilience governance in the face of risk amplification, a binary explanation framework for the butterfly effect was constructed based on the duality of risk. This framework encompassed social and cascading amplification of risk, clarifying the social amplification mechanism and cascading transmission pattern of the butterfly effect. On this basis, human-centered resilience construction mechanism in response to the butterfly effect was further explored. The results show that the duality of risk emphasizes the dialectical unity between the objective reality of risk its social constructiveness. Meanwhile, based on this duality, the uncertainty arising from the butterfly effect can be deconstructed, rooted in the complexity of modern socio-technical systems and the ambiguity resulting from the social construction of risk. On the one hand, modern socio-technical risks are interlinked and interdependent, forming an intricate risk network that exhibits endogenous complexity and provides impetus for risk cascade amplification. On the other hand, constrained by risk knowledge, the public's risk perception and behavior are influenced by social, institutional, and cultural factors, among others, manifesting as social ambiguity that creates conditions for the social amplification of risk. The duality of risk necessitates the establishment of a human-centered resilience governance system, that focus on improving risk monitoring and early warning system, refining risk communication mechanism, and promoting multi-stakeholder participation in governance, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of resilience management against the butterfly effect.

Key words: risk zoo, butterfly effect, duality of risk, social amplification, cascade effect, resilience governance