中国安全科学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6): 10-19.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.06.0091

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

风险动物园(VI):黑天鹅的隐喻溯源、嬗变历程与研究展望

佟瑞鹏(), 梁梵洁(), 孟子尧, 王益艳   

  1. 中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2023-12-14 修回日期:2024-03-18 出版日期:2024-06-28
  • 作者简介:

    佟瑞鹏 (1977—),男,黑龙江穆棱人,博士,教授,主要从事行为安全管理、职业心理健康、环境风险评估等方面的研究。E-mail:

    梁梵洁 (1997—),女,湖南怀化人,博士研究生,主要从事安全管理方面的研究。E-mail:

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(52074302); 北京市自然科学基金资助(8212015)

Risk zoo (VI): metaphorical traceability, evolution process and research outlook of black swans

TONG Ruipeng(), LIANG Fanjie(), MENG Ziyao, WANG Yiyan   

  1. School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2023-12-14 Revised:2024-03-18 Published:2024-06-28

摘要:

为防范黑天鹅带来的不确定性风险和极端影响,在隐喻理论视角下深入研究黑天鹅的溯源、嬗变与展望。首先,从历史源流与发展态势2方面,采用概念整合理论分析黑天鹅风险隐喻的认知构建机制,总结黑天鹅总体发展态势,在此基础上划分黑天鹅创建奠基、探索发展、创新完善3个重要嬗变阶段,提出数智赋能背景下黑天鹅的研究困境与未来展望。研究结果表明:黑天鹅的风险隐喻含义是具有稀有性、偶发性,出人意料且无法预测,并产生极端负面影响的风险事件;黑天鹅风险隐喻的发展将进入数量波动变化的理论分化阶段,研究方向应从泛化应用到精准应用、从单一风险到复合风险、从孤岛研究到群体研究。

关键词: 风险动物园, 黑天鹅, 风险隐喻, 嬗变历程, 概念整合, 不确定性

Abstract:

In order to prevent the risk of uncertainty and extreme impact brought by the black swan, the origin, transmutation and prospect of the black swan were studied in depth under the perspective of metaphor theory. Firstly, the conceptual integration theory was adopted to analyze the cognitive construction mechanism of the black swan risk metaphor from the aspects of historical flow and development trend, summarize the overall development trend of the black swan, and on the basis of this, divide the black swan into three important transmutation stages of founding, exploring development, and innovating and perfecting, so as to put forward the research dilemma and future outlook of the black swan under the background of digital intelligence empowerment. The results show that the risk metaphor meaning of black swan is a risk event with rarity, episodic, unexpected and unpredictable, and extremely negative impact; the development of the black swan risk metaphor will enter the stage of theoretical differentiation of quantitative fluctuation and change, and the direction of the research should be from generalized application to precise application, from single risk to composite risk, and from silo research to group research.

Key words: risk zoo, black swan, risk metaphors, evolution process, conceptual integration, uncertainty

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