基于累积接尘量的尘肺病风险评估方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.02.027

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了降低不同接尘经历劳动者的尘肺病风险,提出一种尘肺病风险评估方法。先进行粉尘种类识别、工作场所粉尘接触评估、劳动者累积接尘量评估,并确定粉尘与尘肺病风险的剂量-反应关系,进而将劳动者累积患病率的现值和增量值作为尘肺病风险评估指标,评估劳动者当前尘肺病风险、继续接尘后尘肺病风险、尘肺病风险增量、尘肺病风险增长率;最后以15名采煤工人为例,运用该评估方法评估其尘肺病风险。结果表明:该方法直观、有效;劳动者患尘肺病的风险随着累积接尘量增加而单调增加;累积接尘量越少,防尘干预降低尘肺病相对风险的效果越明显。

关键词: 累积接尘量, 剂量-反应关系, 尘肺病, 风险评估, 不确定性

Abstract:

In order to reduce the risk of pneumoconiosis for workers with different dust exposure experiences, a risk assessment method was proposed. Firstly, dust types were identified, and dust exposure in workplace and cumulative dust exposure of workers were evaluated, and dose-response relationship between dust and pneumoconiosis risk were determined. Then, current pneumoconiosis risk, risk after a period of continued exposure to dust, increase of such risk, and its growth rate were assessed by using current values and increment values of cumulative prevalence as risk assessment indexes. Finally, with 15 coal miners as examples, pneumoconiosis risk assessment was carried out by utilizing the assessment method. The results show that the proposed method is intuitive and effective. And pneumoconiosis risk monotonously increases along with the cumulative dust exposure. The smaller the exposure is, the more obvious effect of dust prevention intervention measures will have in reducing relative risk.

Key words: cumulative dust exposure, dose-response relationship, pneumoconiosis, risk assessment, uncertainty

张鸽. 基于累积接尘量的尘肺病风险评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(2): 200-206.

ZHANG Ge. Pneumoconiosis risk assessment method based on cumulative dust exposure[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(2): 200-206.

图/表 5

图1

表1

粉尘累积接尘量及其累积患病率的寿命表算法

组别序号n	累积接尘量 D_n/(mg·a)	观察人数L_n	接尘人数B_n	患病人数A_n	未患病人数W_n	校正人数 L'_n	患病率 p_n	未患病率 q_n	累积患病率 P_n
1	0~	$L 1 *$	$B 1 *$	$A 1 *$	W₁=B₁-A₁	L'₁=L₁ -W₁ /2	p₁=A₁/L'₁	q₁= 1-p₁	P_n=1- q₁
2	100~	L₂=L₁-B₁	$B 2 *$	$A 2 *$	W₂=B₂-A₂	L'₂=L₂ -W₂ /2	p₂=A₂/L'₂	q₂= 1-p₂	P_n=1- q₁ q₂
︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙

表1

表2

图2

图3

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编号	既有累积接尘量/ (mg·a)	本次检测暴露质量浓度/ (mg·m^-3)	1年后累积接尘量/ (mg·a)	本次检测时累积患病率P_N	1年后累积患病率P_F	患病风险增量ΔR	患病风险增长率R_I/%^*
1	60	25.0	85	0.001	0.003	0.002	134.6^*
2	91	25.0	116	0.004	0.007	0.003	80.8
3	171	25.0	196	0.019	0.026	0.007	38.7
4	249	25.0	274	0.046	0.057	0.011	24.9
5	289	25.0	314	0.065	0.078	0.013	20.8
6	330	25.0	355	0.087	0.103	0.015	17.6
7	370	25.0	395	0.113	0.130	0.017	15.1
8	410	25.0	435	0.140	0.159	0.019	13.1
9	493	25.0	518	0.204	0.224	0.020	10.0
10	553	25.0	578	0.254	0.275	0.021	8.3
11	623	25.0	648	0.313	0.334	0.021	6.7
12	704	25.0	729	0.381	0.401	0.020	5.4
13	866	25.0	891	0.505	0.523	0.018	3.5
14	956	25.0	981	0.566	0.581	0.015	2.7
15	1 046	25.0	1 071	0.619	0.632	0.013	2.2

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