不确定性条件下煤尘职业健康损害评价方法及应用

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.04.024

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 139-144.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.04.024

不确定性条件下煤尘职业健康损害评价方法及应用

佟瑞鹏¹ 副教授, 程蒙召¹, 马晓飞¹, 许素睿^**2 副教授

1 中国矿业大学(北京) 资源与安全工程学院,北京 100083
2 中国劳动关系学院安全工程系,北京 100048

收稿日期:2018-01-20 修回日期:2018-03-25 出版日期:2018-04-28 发布日期:2020-09-28
作者简介:佟瑞鹏(1977—),男,黑龙江穆棱人,博士,副教授,主要从事行为安全与管理、风险建模与评估、公共安全与健康等方面的研究。E-mail:tongrp@cumtb.edu.cn。程蒙召(1993—),男,河南商丘人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为职业健康风险建模与评估。E-mail:18801033239@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51674268)。

Evaluation method of coal dust occupational health damage under uncertainty condition and its application

TONG Ruipeng¹, CHENG Mengzhao¹, MA Xiaofei¹, XU Surui²

1 School of Resources & Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
2 School of Safety Engineering, China Institute of Industrial Relations, Beijing 100048, China

Received:2018-01-20 Revised:2018-03-25 Online:2018-04-28 Published:2020-09-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为获得更为合理的煤尘健康损害评价结果,并辨识对健康损害影响较大的因素,基于蒙特卡罗模拟和传统的确定性健康损害评价方法,构建煤尘通过吸入途径的概率风险评估模型;运用该模型定量评估某煤矿采煤工作面、掘进工作面、锚喷作业点和转载点等4个工作面煤尘的健康损害水平,并对各参数进行敏感性分析。结果表明:该煤矿各工作面煤尘健康损害服从对数正态分布,掘进工作面煤尘职业健康损害最大,采煤工作面和锚喷作业点次之,转载点煤尘职业健康损害最小;在与煤尘健康损害相关的各参数中,暴露周期、暴露时间、呼吸速率和煤尘浓度,对评价结果的影响较大;该优化模型对解决煤尘职业健康损害评价中不确定性问题具有可行性和有效性。

关键词: 不确定性, 煤尘, 蒙特卡罗模拟, 健康损害评价, 概率风险模型

Abstract: In order to obtain more reasonable health damage assessment results and identify the most significant factors, a probabilistic risk assessment model was built based on the Monte Carlo simulation and the deterministic health damage assessment method. The health damage level of coal dust was evaluated at four workplaces of a certain coal mine in China, such as coal mining face, heading face, shotcrete point and transshipment point. And, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the influence of each variable parameter. The results show that for the four workplaces in the coal mine, coal dust health damage has a logarithm normal distribution. The coal miners at heading face are exposed to the highest health damage, followed by coal mining face and shotcrete point, the last is transshipment point. Sensitivity analysis indicate that exposure duration, exposure time, inhalation rate and coal dust concentration at various workplaces have a decisive effect on the evaluation results. The optimization model is effective in solving the uncertainty problem of coal dust occupational health damage assessment.

Key words: uncertainty, coal dust, Monte Carlo simulation, health damage assessment, probabilistic risk model

中图分类号:

X913.4

佟瑞鹏, 程蒙召, 马晓飞, 许素睿. 不确定性条件下煤尘职业健康损害评价方法及应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(4): 139-144.

TONG Ruipeng, CHENG Mengzhao, MA Xiaofei, XU Surui. Evaluation method of coal dust occupational health damage under uncertainty condition and its application[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(4): 139-144.

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不确定性条件下煤尘职业健康损害评价方法及应用

Evaluation method of coal dust occupational health damage under uncertainty condition and its application

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