Assessment of risk of gas explosion in coal mine based on prospect theory and interval number

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.06.016

Abstract

Abstract: In order to evaluate disaster risk of gas explosion in coal mine, a risk evaluation model was built on the basis of both the prospect theory and the fuzzy evaluation theory. And an evaluation system was also established based on the formation conditions of coal mine gas explosion and accident-causing theory. Having the aid of the prospect theory, the attribute values were determined as the weights of each interval number, by using the expectancy value of interval number as the reference point. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was built for the risk of gas explosion in coal mine based on the interval numbers on the basis of both the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory and the ranking interval numbers principle. Finally, risk evaluations were performed for three coal mines by applying the model. The assessment result conforms with the real situation. The results show that the proposed evaluation method overcome the limited rational behavior of man's influence on the decisions of subjective expected utility, the evaluation results was more objective and scientific.

Key words: prospect theory, gas explosion, interval number, risk assessment, interval number sequence

CLC Number:

X932

PI Zikun, JIA Baoshan, JIA Tinggui, LI Zongxiang. Assessment of risk of gas explosion in coal mine based on prospect theory and interval number[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(6): 91-96.

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