Research on dynamic prediction of probability of offshore drilling platform blowout fire

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.02.011

Abstract

Abstract: To predict the dynamic probability of blowout fire on offshore drilling platform,the main factors influencing blowout fire accident were identified using the safety barrier model. Then, a dynamic probability prediction model was built for blowout fire by integrating the relevant principles of SD. The simulation software Vensim was used to simulate the overall process of blowout fire accident, and a dynamic probability prediction formula was deduced for blowout fire by fitting the historical data and simulation data. The results show that there is a exponential functional relation between the probability of blowout fire and time, and a duration of 4 years will make the probability of blowout fire increase from 2.41×10^-6 to 3.997×10^-6,and that the deduced equation can be used to predict the dynamic probability of blowout fire accident on offshore drilling platform .

Key words: offshore drilling platform, blowout fire, probability prediction, system dynamics(SD), safety barrier

CLC Number:

X937

WANG Yanfu, LI Biao, QIN Tao, ZHANG Biao. Research on dynamic prediction of probability of offshore drilling platform blowout fire[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(2): 64-68.

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