Time-series risk assessment model for disaster evolution network

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.03.024

Abstract

Abstract: In order to explore time-varying characteristics of risk during disaster evolution and feasibility of time-series risk assessment, such an assessment model for disaster evolution network was firstly constructed by adopting disaster evolution theory and methods. The model was mainly composed of four sub-models, including disaster loss degree, disaster occurrence probability, disaster direct risk and comprehensive risk based on factors like chain effects of disaster, time-varying consequences and government intervention. Then, the model's feasibility was verified through numerical examples. Finally, its superiority was analyzed. The results show that the constructed model could not only evaluate direct and comprehensive risk for disaster evolution network and obtain their dynamic change trend, but also analyze high-risk occurrence time and duration of key nodes in the network.

Key words: disaster evolution network, time-varying character, risk assessment, direct risk, comprehensive risk

CLC Number:

X915.5

ZHAO Dongyue, CHEN Changkun, YI Liang. Time-series risk assessment model for disaster evolution network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(3): 171-177.

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