Risk warning of pressure fluctuation in fluidized beds based on generalized extreme value distribution

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.01.012

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to forewarn pressure fluctuation risks of pulverized coal gasification in fluidized beds caused by bubble movement, a method to predict extreme value and return level of pressure fluctuation was proposed. Firstly, pressure fluctuation data of parent sample were segmented reasonably by autocorrelation analysis method, and interval extreme value method was employed to calculate extreme value data for sub-samples. Secondly, GEV distribution model and Gumbel distribution model were established through GEV distribution method, and an optimal model was selected by model diagnosis. Then, extreme distribution parameters of parent sample were obtained from parametric relationship between it and sub-samples, and expected value of extreme pressure fluctuation was acquired based on extreme value distribution parameters of parent sample, from which, return level of pressure fluctuation was also obtained by Bayesian inference. The results show that the error rate of extreme value obtained by utilizing GEV distribution is controlled within ±10%, with its average error rate within -1.7%-3.7%. It can be believed with 95% confidence that return level of pressure fluctuation will be maintained within confidence interval.

Key words: fluidized bed, pressure fluctuation, generalized extreme value (GEV), risk warning, return level

ZHANG Jinchun, CHEN Xin, ZHANG Wenjun, WU Shilong. Risk warning of pressure fluctuation in fluidized beds based on generalized extreme value distribution[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(1): 85-91.

Figures/Tables 10

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流型	运输流	爆炸泡流	多泡流	单泡流
气速/(m·s^-1)	0.6	0.6	2.2	4.1
固体质量流量/ (kg· m^-2·s^-1)	0	0	1	25
床底层高度/m	0.40	0.37	0.30	0
床底层空隙率	0.51	0.50	0.58	-
床底层压降/Pa	4 960	4 730	3 310	-
分配器压降/Pa	4 200	660	3 090	13 700

流型	平均误差率
流型	本文方法	Davenport	Kown-Kareem
运输流	-1.2	-17.0	-11.6
爆炸泡流	3.7	-13.0	-9.0
多泡流	0.7	-17.3	-6.7
单泡流	-1.7	-21.6	-12.3

流型	后验均值	中位数	95%分位数
运输流	899.6	896.6	953.3
爆炸泡流	6 232.0	6 226.0	6 373.0
多泡流	1 322.0	1 320.0	1 359.0
单泡流	2 357.0	2 358.0	2 383.0