Abstract:

In order to reduce the construction risks of prefabricated building projects, indexes were refined based on accident analysis and other methods, and the construction risk evaluation index system of prefabricated buildings with 5 primary indexes and 26 secondary ones was established. Then, the contingency theory and nearness degree were introduced to replace constant weight assignment method and correlation degree algorithm in traditional matter element extension method, and the construction risk assessment model of prefabricated buildings based on the improved matter element extension was constructed. Finally, the model was applied to validate the case whose construction risk level was obtained to be 1, namely low risk, and effectiveness of the model was verified by comparing its assessment results with those of the traditional one. The results show that the assessment model based on the improved matter element extension method can be applied to effectively evaluate the project risk status before the occurrence of accidents and achieve the purpose of improving risk management benefits.

Key words: prefabricated building, construction risk assessment, matter element extension model, contingency theory, nearness degree