Operational risks and prevention of weather modification aircraft construction projects

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.S1.0143

China Safety Science Journal ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (S1): 103-107.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.S1.0143

• Safety engineering technology • Previous Articles Next Articles

Operational risks and prevention of weather modification aircraft construction projects

ZHAI Wei¹(), MA Jinyu¹, GU Qingfeng¹^,^**(), LI Hongyu²

¹ Institute for Development and Programme Design, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
² Weather Modification Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2022-01-12 Revised:2022-04-15 Online:2022-06-30 Published:2022-12-30
Contact: GU Qingfeng

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to ensure safe and stable aircraft construction in weather modification projects, and improve project management, risk analysis was carried out by using risk probability matrix method. Firstly, risks were classfied from a perspective of project construction, and then, analysis and evaluation of operational and maintenance risks was carried out. Finally, concrete preventive measures were proposed from aspects of operational capability of aircraft management companies, operating environment, flight crew, and maintenance and air material support. The results show that the management and resource allocation ability of aircraft management companies are the main risk factors. It is necessary to strengthen scientific selection, and their supervision and management in the whole life cycle of projects.

Key words: weather modification project, aircraft construction program, operational risk, risk prevention measure, risk probability matrix

ZHAI Wei, MA Jinyu, GU Qingfeng, LI Hongyu. Operational risks and prevention of weather modification aircraft construction projects[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(S1): 103-107.

Figures/Tables 3

References 15

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序号	区域	高性能飞机	常规飞机	合计
1	东北区域	3	10	13
2	西北区域	4	8	12
3	华北区域	2	11	13
4	中部区域	3	8	11
5	西南区域	4	5	9
6	东南区域	3	7	10
合计		19	49	68

影响等级	对项目目标影响程度	概率等级	发生的可能性	表示
严重影响	整个项目的目标失败	很高	81%~100%,很有可能发生	S
较大影响	整个项目的标值严重下降	较高	61%~80%,可能性较大	H
中等影响	目标造成中度影响,部分达到	中等	41%~60%,在项目中预期发生	M
较小影响	对应部分的目标受到影响,不影响整体目标	较低	21%~40%,不可能发生	L
可忽略影响	对应部分的目标影响可忽略,不影响整体目标	很低	0%~20%,非常不可能发生	N

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