Abstract:

To predict the occurrence rate of elevator equipment accidents, the generalized algebraic difference approach was used to establish a dynamic difference prediction model. Firstly, the generalized algebraic difference approach was used to set multi-free-parameters and constructed a series of dynamic difference equations. Secondly, the algebraic difference approach was used to set single-free-parameter and constructed a control equation. Then, coupled with the analysis of statistical indicators and graphical patterns, the optimal generalized algebraic difference prediction model for the safety accident rate of elevator equipment was determined. Finally, the data of elevator equipment accidents in China over the past 16 years were used to verify the effectiveness of the optimal prediction theoretical model. The results show that the accident rate of elevator equipment in China presents an overall decreasing trend, but the decreasing trend of the accident rate per 10 000 units slows down. Using the generalized algebraic difference approach, the model derives from the exponential equation with the deviation of 0.002 2, the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0453 52 and the fitting degree of 0.886 8 is the best prediction model, and the relative error of its prediction value is 5.9%. The prediction model can be updated according to the real-time data such as the amount of registered elevator equipment and the number of accidents rate per 10 000 units, and can effectively predict the accident rate of elevator equipment in China.

Key words: elevator equipment, difference model, generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA), algebraic difference approach (ADA), prediction model, accidents rate per 10 000 units