Comprehensive risk calculation of international freight train routes during COVID-19 pandemic

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.02.0805

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to analyze and measure the comprehensive risk of international freight train routes such as China-Europe and China-Asia freight train routes under the global COVID-19, this paper aimed to help policy makers to take preventive measures. Firstly, the comprehensive risk evaluation index system of the countries along the corridor under the epidemic situation was constructed, and FCM was used to classify countries along the corridor by risk levels. Then a routing risk measurement model considering interaction between nodes was constructed. Finally, Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the experiment, so that the destination and the return train risk scores of different routes were obtained. The results show that the central/eastbound channel of China-Europe freight train routes have the highest risk, while the southbound channel and new channel of China-Asia freight train routes have relatively low risk. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively develop the southbound channel and new channels to share the freight risk of high channel.

Key words: corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), international freight train, risk calculation, fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering, Monte Carlo method

WANG Chenyu, OU Qichen, GAN Mi. Comprehensive risk calculation of international freight train routes during COVID-19 pandemic[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(2): 209-216.

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References 14

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目标层	指标	指标性质	数据来源
疫情风险	新增病例数	正向	World Health Organization
	病毒基本再生数	正向	World Health Organization
	政府疫情控制严格指数	逆向	Our World in Data
	疫苗接种情况	逆向	Our World in Data
	主流变异体首例传播时间	逆向	Our World in Data
节点区位及贸易重要度风险	从中国进口占中国总进口量比例	正向	United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database
节点区位及贸易重要度风险	出口中国占中国总出口量比例	正向	United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database
常态风险	政府腐败控制指数	逆向	Worldwide Governance Indicators
	政府监管质量指数	逆向	Doing business.org
	营商便利指数	逆向	United Nations
	人均GDP/GDP增速	逆向	World Bank
	物流绩效指数	逆向	World Bank
地缘政治风险	地缘政治风险考量	逆向	新闻报道

节点国家	聚类簇1	聚类簇2	聚类簇3
西班牙	1.205	3.754	95.041
意大利	2.227	10.518	87.255
荷兰	0.579	94.407	5.014
德国	0.335	97.681	1.984
波兰	0.715	0.395	98.890
俄罗斯	12.528	5.955	81.516
蒙古	83.609	1.284	15.107
哈萨克斯坦	63.269	2.143	34.588
土耳其	1.965	0.294	97.741
伊朗	84.269	1.295	14.436
乌兹别克斯坦	99.867	0.009	0.125
塔吉克斯坦	98.254	0.183	1.563
吉尔吉斯斯坦	98.526	0.138	1.337
土库曼斯坦	95.141	0.547	4.312

风险得分	去程班列风险	返程班列风险
中欧班列中/东向通道	29.595 122 57	33.954 036 14
中欧班列西向通道	28.883 404 33	23.685 723 19
中亚班列南向通道	1.620 677 178	2.449 946 804
中亚班列新通道	0.265 276 595	0.093 737 05

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