A model for dynamic risk calculation of urban gas pipeline

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.028

Abstract

Abstract: To effectively evaluate and timely control the leakage risk of urban gas pipeline, the paper was aimed at building a dynamic risk model based on BN and GIS technology. A fault tree (FT) model was built initially to analyze the leakage accident systematically, subsequently the FT model was mapped into a BN considering the dynamism of service time and human interference to calculate dynamic probabilities of gas pipeline leakage. In addition, the severity of the consequence of the gas pipeline leakage was assigned automatically by the GIS spatial analysis. Finally, a dynamic risk model of urban gas pipeline was built by combining dynamic probabilities and severity of leakage, and the effectiveness of the model was also validated through a case study of the gas pipeline system in a certain area. The results illustrate that this model can calculate and visualize the risk of gas pipeline leakage dynamically considering the effects of both time and emergency events on the leakage.

Key words: urban gas pipeline, dynamic probabilities of leakage, severity of consequence, dynamic risk calculation, Bayesian network (BN), geographic information system(GIS)

CLC Number:

X913.4

YANG Yongsheng, ZHONG Shaobo, YU Zhichen, LI Yaoxuan, HUANG Quanyi. A model for dynamic risk calculation of urban gas pipeline[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(1): 167-172.

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