Multi-hazard comprehensive risk assessment based on coupling incentive mechanism

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.03.027

Abstract

Abstract: In order to solve the problems of neglecting the interaction between multiple disasters and lacking guidance for urban land use planning in regional comprehensive risk assessment of multiple disasters, a comprehensive risk assessment model was built for multiple disasters based on coupling incentive mechanism. The central area of Shijiazhuang city was taken as the research object. Firstly, GIS was used to obtain typical disaster information such as geology, earthquake, fire, flood, and waterlogging. Then, the spatial coupling incentive rules between disasters were constructed. Finally, the integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards was carried out by using the ordered weighted set of settlements. The results show that the areas of extremely high, high, medium, low and extremely low risk areas account for 26%, 19%, 31%, 21% and 3% respectively. Among them, the areas with high comprehensive disaster risks are mainly concentrated along Hutuo River, the periphery of major hazard sources and Shijiazhuang fault zone, which are distributed in clusters. The obtained research results are highly consistent with the actual situation, indicating that the incentive model can accurately integrate various disaster information and overcome many uncertain problems, thus effectively realizing rapid and flexible comprehensive disaster risk assessment for cities.

Key words: multi-hazard risk, geographic information system(GIS), coupling incentive mechanism, ordered weighted aggregation operator, comprehensive evaluation

CLC Number:

X913.4

WANG Wei, XIA Chenhong, MA Donghui, SU Jingyu. Multi-hazard comprehensive risk assessment based on coupling incentive mechanism[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(3): 161-167.

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