China Safety Science Journal

Mapping knowledge domains of safety evacuation in China

LI Jie, LI Ping, XIE Qimiao, FU Shanshan

2018, 28(1): 1-7. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.001

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In order to analyze the overall status of the safety evacuation in China, evacuation articles from 8 journals were downloaded from CNKI. The time distribution, cooperation network of authors and institutions, keywords co-occurrence were visualized by CiteSpace and Gephi. The results show that the outputs of safety evacuation can be divided into four periods, a budding period, a slow growth period, a rapid growth period and a maturity period. LI Yuanzhou, HUO Ran and LU Shouxiang are located in the center of the authors' cooperation network, that University of Science and Technology of China, Chinese People's Armed Police Forces Academy and Tianjin Fire Research Institute of MPS have wide cooperation with other institutions, that the hot keywords of safety evacuation are fire, numerical simulation, and performance based design, and involve different aspects, including object of evacuation, fire evacuation, tools and methods for evacuation and other factors affecting evacuation, and that the area become more and more mature.

Influences of cognitive structure variables on lifting workers' intentions to violate

JIN Lianghai, GONG Run, CHEN Shu, XIAO Jinke, CAI Lili, YAO Ruojun

2018, 28(1): 8-13. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.002

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The paper aimed at exploring the effects of cognitive structural variables on lifting workers' intentions to violate. On the basis of TPB, a model of lifting workers' violation behavior intention was built by introducing three cognitive structural variables, risk perception, safety consciousness and behavioral experiences. The hypothesis model was validated through the statistical analysis of the data on 257workers, obtained by carrying out a questionnaire survey, and SEM was used to reveal the influence paths of cognitive structural variables on lifting workers' intentions to violate.The result shows that safety consciousness, behavior experience, behavioral attitudes, subjective norms and perceptual behavior control have a remarkable direct effect on the intention to violate, that risk perception has a remarkable indirect effect on the intention through safety consciousness, that safety consciousness also has a remarkable indirect effect on the intention through behavioral experience, and that lifting workers' violation behavior intentions are also indirectly effected by risk perception,subjective norms and perceptual behavior control through the medium of behavioral attitude.

Influence of use of in-vehicle information device on driving behavior

WU Shaobin, LIU Xueting, SUN Hongwu

2018, 28(1): 14-19. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.003

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To investigate the influence of the use of in-vehicle information devices on driving behavior, driving distraction experiments were performed by using a virtual driving simulation platform, a key press type radio, and a touch panel radio among others. In order to evaluate psychological resources driving distraction demands and the impact on driving performance, the driver response time, the target hit rate, the vehicle speed variation and the car following distance were measured with PDT. The results show that the use of in-vehicle information device can decrease the driver's response capacity and driving performance, that for a given driver, the response time measured when he or she drives and makes use of the touch panel is 167 ms longer than that measured when he or she drives and makes use of the key-press type, and the PDT target hit rate is 10% lower, that the use of the touch panel also has a pronounced influence on the speed maintenance and car following maintenance capacity, and that the use of the vehicle information device with touch panel requires more psychological resources, and decreases reaction on both sides of the field of view of information stimulation, therefore the use of the touch panel has a significantly negative influence on the driving safety.

Research on drivers' cognitive distracted recognition model based on random forest

ZHOU Yang, FU Rui, YUAN Wei, WANG Dong, ZHANG Ruibin

2018, 28(1): 20-25. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.004

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In order to recognize the cognitive distracted state of drivers, a driving simulator test was carried out with 13 drivers recruited as testees. Data on eye movement of the testees were collected by an eye tracker when they performed a normal driving task or a cognitive secondary tasks. Eye movement features were extracted through 5 s time window. A cognitive distracted recognition model was built using random forest. The optimal model parameters were determined by grid searching, and the model performance were evaluated by using the 100 times hold out tests method. The effects of cognitive load on drivers' fixation duration and blink duration were analyzed according to feature importance measurements generated by the random forest model. The results show that when the number of decision trees is 125 and max features are 5, the mean accuracy can achieve 83.69%, that fixation duration and noise data duration are the two features having a key role in recognizing cognitive distraction, and that an increase in cognitive load will result in longer fixation duration and shorter blink duration.

Research on head injury to rider in automobile-motorycle collision accident

RAN Qilin, ZHANG Daowen, LIU Feng, ZHANG Guanghui

2018, 28(1): 26-31. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.005

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In order to study the regulation of dynamics response for the motorcycle's rider and the car after the collision, based on a real case in the National Vehicle Accident Investigation System (NAIS), a 90°motorcycle and the car front collision model was built by means of the PC-Crash software. On this basis, simulation tests were carried out to study the impact of rider sitting posture and the speed of the car on rider's head injury. The results show that when the speed of the car is constant, the HIC value of the rider increases with the increase of the rider's sitting angle, that the point of time at which the collision occurs between the rider's head and the car comes earlier as the rider's sitting angle increases, that when the motorcycle speed is constant, this is a positive correlation between the HIC value of the rider increases and the rider's sitting angle, and that the point of time at which the collision occurs between the rider's head and the car's contact collision moment comes earlier as the rider's sitting angle increases.

Research on drivers' visual illusion in tunnels under different combined visual information conditions

YANG Libo, DU Zhigang, XU Wanwan, WANG Shoushuo

2018, 28(1): 32-37. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.006

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The paper was aimed at analyzing quantitatively drivers' visual illusion in tunnels under different combined visual information conditions. First, a simulation model was built by means of 3Ds Max software, and psychophysical experiments on the speed perception were carried out based on the E-prime software. Then 30 drivers were selected as testees, the speed illusion and reaction time of the testees were measured in different test scenes. Finally, the experiment data were analyzed statistically. The results show that multiscale and multifrequency combined visual information can improve the speed illusion of drivers, and significantly reduce the reaction time, that the multiscale and multifrequency combined visual information has an important influence on the speed overestimation, that under higher luminance level conditions, drivers have a sharper awareness of the speed variation, and that the multiscale and multifrequency combined visual information can increase the effect of visual reference systems, effectively improve the speed perception of drivers in tunnels.

Study on cellular automation evacuation model based on improved ant colony optimization algorithm

WANG Ru, ZHOU Lei, LIU Jun

2018, 28(1): 38-43. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.007

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In order to prevent casualties during actual evacuation processes, a CA evacuation model was built based on improved ACO algorithm according to personal evacuation characteristics. The model regards the pedestrian as an individual cell, and modifies the heuristic function, pheromone update methods and tabu rule of ACO algorithm to realize the retrograde, detour, obstacle avoidance and herd behavior in the process of evacuation. An evacuation process from a single exit room was simulated by using the model. A comparison was made between the simulation result and that obtained by using the commercial software pathfinder. The results show that the model can simulate the ″arching″ phenomenon in the actual evacuation process, and the evacuation time obtained by this model is similar to that obtained by commercial software pathfinder, which proves that the model is effective in the evacuation process, and that compared to pathfinder, it can output main evacuation routes.

Construction of a risk assessment model based on linguistic ELECTRI-TRI method

MU Nengye, QIU Ge

2018, 28(1): 44-49. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.008

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In terms of the risk assessment problem with the lack of information, this paper constructs a novel risk assessment model based on linguistic ELECTRE-TRI in consideration of the heterogeneity and non-compensation among the criteria. Firstly, the experts are asked to characterize and handle the uncertain information in the utilization of CFGJ or its extended format, PD-HFLTS. Secondly, the outranking relations between risk assessment values of potential dangerous events and the threshold value of risk grade division are constructed with the utilization of ELECTRE-TRI. And then the risk levels of the potential dangerous events can be attained on the basis of the outranking relations obtained before. Finally, an example validates the scientific and effective nature of the model. The results show that CFGJ and PD-HFLTS can not only effectively characterize the uncertainty in risk assessment information, but also improve the accuracy of the process of semantic information, and that the proposed model based on ELECTRE-TRI has the outstanding feasibility and effectiveness in addressing the multi-criteria risk assessment problems with the non-compensation.

Safety early warning model of freeway emergency influenced by multiple factors

CHEN Lingling, LI Feng, YANG Jiaqi, WANG Jian

2018, 28(1): 50-55. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.009

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To prevent and deal with emergencies on the freeway in time, a basic model and three submodels were built for early warning of emergencies on freeway. The vehicular traffic, driver behavior, freeway condition and abnormal weather, were identified as the factors influencing freeway emergencies. Three safety early warning indexes of traffic, road operation and weather state were proposed. A safety warning signal output diagram was used to show the operation state of freeway at different times. The effectiveness of the model and the submodels was tested by data on a certain traffic accident happened on the Jing-Shen freeway. The research shows that the model and the submodels can be used to identify the possible crisis, find the hidden danger in the freeway in time, and accurately reflect the safety state before and after the emergency.

A helping behavior-considering cellular automaton model for evacuation from a building

GAO Guoping, GUAN Changsheng

2018, 28(1): 56-61. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.010

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To study the role of helping behavior in evacuation and simulate the helping behavior of evacuees in evacuation process, a cellular automaton model considering helping behavior was built. Simulation of evacuation from a room were carried out. Through the simulations, the influences of helping behavior on the evacuation efficiency and evacuation process were studied, the relationships between the influences and the spatial distribution of the elderly were examined, and the time characteristics of the evacuees leaving the evacuation space were analyzed. The results show that the helping behavior of the young can improve the efficiency of the whole evacuation, but its effect is influenced by the help probability of the young, the proportion and the spatial distribution of the elderly, that when the proportion of the elderly is less than 80%, the effect of helping behavior is good, that when the elderly is distributed in the whole room, the effect of helping behavior is much higher, that the effect is also a function of the stages of the evacuation process, and that the helping behavior can optimize the distribution of evacuees' leaving time.

A shift in paradigm for system safety: comparative study of risk and resilience

WANG Yang, HUANG Jinhui, FU Shanshan, WEI Xiaoyang, WU Bing

2018, 28(1): 62-68. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.011

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Resilience has become an emerging research paradigm in safety science for years. In contrast with the traditional risk theory in safety science,resilience emphasizes the full-cycle system performance,including the phases before,during and after disruptions. In this paper, the main results and advances in this domain were reviewed the theoretical structure of and the difficulties in risk study were described, and the motivation and trajectory of the development of the theory were examined. The positions of and relations between the two theories were analyzed,and a comparative study was conducted on the two theories in terms of similarities and differences in research methods. The research trends of the two theories and their joint impact on the safety engineering were predicted.

Study on preparation and properties of ZIF-8 synergistic intumescent flame retardant polypropylene

OU Hongxiang, CHEN GuanghaoWEI Linyan, WU Jie, LI Jinchun, XING Zhixiang

2018, 28(1): 69-74. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.012

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To improve the intrinsic safety of pure PP with increasing flame retardancy and antistatic properties, a novel halogen-free intumescent flame retardant polypropylene composites (ZIF-8/PP) were prepared using ZIF-8 type zeolite imidazolate framework material, ammonium polyphosphate (APP) and pentaerythritol (PER). The effects of ZIF-8 on properties of polypropylene were studied with methods such as oxygen index, mechanical test, thermal gravimetric analysis, and resistance test. The results indicate that the addition of ZIF-8 can improve effectively the flame retardancy and antistatic properties of pure PP, with slight decreasing of the mechanical property, that when the mass fraction of ZIF-8 is 3%, the following properties of ZIF-8/PP expressed: the oxygen index reaches 28%, the surface resistivity decrease to 10⁸ Ω·cm (resulting in the transition from insulator to anti-static body), and the tensile strength of ZIF-8/PP is 21.2 MPa, and that ZIF-8 can increase the composites' amount of residual carbon, and the compact carbon layer with foam morphology formed in the melt surface inhibiting the flue gas, and improve the composites' thermal stability.

Study on change regulation of limit oxygen concentration and monitoring early warning system for inerting system

ZHOU Ning, WANG Yufei, ZHAO Huijun, JI Hong, YUAN Xiongjun, LIU Xuanya

2018, 28(1): 75-80. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.013

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In order to solve the problem of frequent accidents with serious consequences involving oil gas pipe tanks at their old age, this paper was aimed at developing an inert gas protection and sealing technology. A method for oxygen concentration classification of inerting system, an oxygen concentration safety margin setting principle and a LOC test method were proposed. The influences of CO₂ and N₂ on explosion limits of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG) and LOC were studied theoretically and experimentally. The restraining mechanism was analyzed. Warning thresholds were set. The results indicate that there is a positive correlation between the maximum explosion pressure arrival time and the volume fraction of CO₂ or N₂, the ratio of the time delayed to that undelayed could reach 7 depending on the fraction, that the mechanisms of explosion suppression of the two inert agents are different, which is mainly reflected in ternary collision reaction, that when the volume fraction of CO₂ is 22% or that of N₂ is 32%, LPG is completely in a state of inertia, and that the early warning valve values could be set according to the experimental results for LPG inerting system on-line monitoring and oxygen concentration monitoring.

Assessment of risk in construction workers' trunk posture using mobile sensor

BAI Zhengzong, YUAN Yongbo, ZHANG Mingyuan

2018, 28(1): 81-86. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.014

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For the WMSDs prevention of construction workers,a method was worked out for assessing the risk of construction workers' trunk posture using mobile sensor. The back having a higher prevalence of WMSDs for construction workers was taken as research object. The built-in smartphone orientation sensors was used to collect data utilized to calculate the flexion-extension angle, lateral bending angle and rotation angle of the trunk posture. The risk of posture was assessed according to the relationship between the static angle and the maximum holding time given by ISO11226: 2000. The method was verified by the laboratory and on-site experiments. The results show that the worked out by the authors is effective and applicable to description and assessment of the construction workers' trunk posture.

A method for assessing risk of ship sea-bridge collision based on fuzzy-Bow-tie

CHEN Weijiong, LU Yining, ZHANG Shanjie, XIE Qimiao, XU Xunqi, GUO Jinchun

2018, 28(1): 87-92. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.015

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In order to effectively reduce the risk of ship sea-bridge collision and improve the safety in bridge area, a new quantitative risk assessment method was therefore worked out. For working out the method, first, the Bow-tie model and the fuzzy set theory were combined to establish a fuzzy-Bow-tie model to quantitatively analyze the outcome events. Then the sensitivity analysis was applied to reveal the main impact factors leading to the collision. At last a risk assessment sample was given. The results show that the method based on fuzzy-Bow-tie model is suitable for quantitative assessment of risk of ship bridge collision, and that it can also provide decision support for safety management.

Research on spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of airport hotspots and airport operational risk assessment

XIA Zhenghong, WAN Jian, ZHU Xinping

2018, 28(1): 93-98. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.016

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In order to study the risk of aircraft taxiing conflicts in large airports, a method was worked out for evaluating the operational risk of airport maneuvering area based on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of airport hotspots. Firstly, an airport in the south-central region of China was taken as an example, whose aerodrome surveillance radar data was divided into several 3 hours long segments, and airport hotspots were identified for the segments, and their spatial and temporal distribution characteristics were analyzed. Then a risk assessment model was built, in which the possibility of hotspots formation, severity of the consequence of the recognized hotspots, conflict sortie ratio of aircrafts, level of conflict possibility, duration of conflict and conflict level were considered. Based on the existing risk level assessment standards, the risk levels of the airport hotspots were evaluated. According to the results, risk levels of airport hotspots are affected by airport traffic flow and operational modes of runway. The operational risk of runway 02 is higher than that of runway 20. If the runway 02 is used for landing or taking-off, the highest risk level will be reached in the segment of 12:00-15:00. And if the runway 20 is used, the risk level of hotspots is relatively high in the segment of 9:00-12:00. The results conform with the reality of the airport.

Excavation stability evaluation of Karst tunnel based on fuzzy matter-element

WU Xianguo, WANG Hongtao, HE Yun

2018, 28(1): 99-104. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.017

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To solve the problem of Karst tunnel excavation stability, the paper was aimed at working out a new method of excavation stability evaluation. Firstly, the influence factors of Karst tunnel excavation stability were identified, and a stability evaluation index system of karst tunnel excavation was established, in which the weights of evaluation indexes were determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method. Finally, the fuzzy material element evaluation method was used to evaluate the excavation stability of a rail transit tunnel, and the engineering membership data were processed by the normal membership function to solve the problem of data discretization. The results show that the evaluation results of Karst tunnel excavation by fuzzy matter-element conform with the actual engineering conditions, and that the evaluation method improves the rationality of the evaluation by considering the factors that affect the stability of excavation and simplifying the evaluation process.

Study of section shape effect on stability of open-pit slope

WANG Dong, ZHANG Yu, CAO Lanzhu, HE Xigetu, ZHOU Yuxiang

2018, 28(1): 105-111. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.018

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In order to explore the effects of nonlinear slopes on slope safety, based on the simplified Bishop theory, the relationship of the values between the sliding force and the anti-slip force generated by the slice's weight on different positions of sliding surface is studied for each slice. Further, effects of the section morphology on slope stability was examined and a concept of section shape effect of slope is introduced. Taking the west slope of the Heishan opencast mine as an example, its stability as a function of the section shape is calculated by simplified Bishop method and numerical simulation with strength reduction method. The results indicate that the bottom angle α_i has always a definite value θ dividing a given slip plane into two parts, anti-skid and slip, that when the shape discrepancy is mainly distributed on the anti-slip surface, the shape effect is favorable to the slope stability, and vice versa, that for open pit slopes, the section shape effect caused by the reasonable convex slope is not only conducive to the stability of the slope, but also reduces the cost of stripping significantly.

Development and application of split bag grouting device

LI Hui, GUO Shaoshuai, SU Xun

2018, 28(1): 112-117. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.019

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For the sake of solving the leakage problem relative to the ordinary bags used in extraction of methane from coal seams, increasing the volume fraction of methane in the mixture, and ensuring underground work safety, a new kind of split bag sealing device and a new sealing technology were developed, and a comparison of the effect was made between the split bags and the ordinary bags by carrying out an engineering test. The results show that for a given, coal seam, the volume fraction of the extraction methane in the mixture inside the boreholes sealed with the split bag grouting devices is 69.3% after 70 days, but that with the ordinary bags is only 31.4%, and sealing the hole with the split bag grouting device can effectively solve the serious problem of air leakage relative to the ordinary bag grouting devices.

Calculation method of initiating event frequency based on multilevel flow modeling

HU Xinsheng, WU Zongzhi, ZHANG Yu, WANG Rujun, DUO Yingquan

2018, 28(1): 118-123. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.020

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Traditional fault tree analysis relies on the experience of the analysis, which makes the assessment results relatively subjective. In order to solve this problem, MFM is used to simulate the actual flow to improve the calculation method of initiating event frequency in chemical process QRA. Firstly, the chemical process is modeled by MFM platform, and then a fault tree is established according to the causal paths reasoning through the MFMSuite software. Finally, the frequency of the top event is calculated according to the logical sequence of the events and the frequency of the initiating event is determined. The method is applied to a heat exchange step in the production process of hydrogen cyanide. The research shows that this method can use the causal paths to deduce the fault tree for the heat exchange process, and that compared with the traditional methods, the result obtained by using the method developed by the authors is more objective.

Reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system based on DBN

CHEN Jie, CHEN Guoming, LI Xinhong, YANG Dongdong, GENG Kaiyue, LIU Changxin

2018, 28(1): 124-129. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.021

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For the sake of improving human-machine cooperation, a reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system was carried out based on DBN approach. According to human-machine interaction procedures, safety barrier structure of the system was built and converted into a DBN model. Based on time-property of DBN, relationships between reliability of both system and subsystems and time, under non-maintenance and maintenance conditions, were analyzed. Using posterior reasoning and sensitivity analysis of DBN, weak risk points of human-machine surface system were identified. The results show that the maintenance is the key factor affecting the reliability of human-machine surface system, and that under the maintenance condition, human factor has the greatest influence on the reliability of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system.

Numerical simulation of movement of both rock mass and surface under thick loose layer high-intensity mining condition

ZHAO Gaobo, GUO Wenbing, LOU Gaozhong, MA Zhibao

2018, 28(1): 130-136. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.022

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To study the movement of both rock mass and surface caused by high-intensity mining under thick loose layer, 3D numerical simulations were carried out for a certain working face in Huobaoganhe Coal Mine taken as a sample. Distribution of overburden failure plastic zone and that of as a function of the vertical stress advance distance were obtained. Characteristics of overburden failure and surface subsidence were analyzed comprehensively. The effectiveness of the numerical simulations was verified by means of the probability integral method and the field measured values. The research results show that the predicted surface subsidence values of the above three methods are close together, and thus the numerical simulation results are credible, that the process of overburden failure is divided into four stages: an initial stage, a slowly increasing stage, a suddenly increasing stage and an ending stage, and that the failure boundary of overlying strata is like a Chinese character corresponding to the word of eight, while that of the moving boundary of thick loose layer looks like an inverted Chinese character corresponding to the word of eight, and a "hourglass" shape is formed by the two boundaries.

Study on factors influencing coal mine work safety based on SEM

CHENG Lianhua, GUO Huimin

2018, 28(1): 137-142. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.023

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It is very important to correctly understand the factors affecting coal mine work safety and their relative importance to the safety system. First, 18 factors divided into 5 categories were identified with the method of literature review and field research. Then, 300 employees from 2 coal mines were selected to carry out the questionnaire survey, and SPSS21.0 was used to analyze the questionnaire data. Finally, a second-order confirmatory factor analysis model and a causal relationship path analysis model were built by the method of SEM, and the relationships between the five factors were analyzed .The results show that human unsafe behaviors have the greatest impact on coal mine work safety, followed by the unsafe factors in organizational management and unsafe status of articles, coal mine inherent risk and the unsafe factor in the environment. In addition, there is a direct or indirect impact between the 5 factors.

Construction and application of "five-in-one" model for safety behavior management

ZHANG Shuli, WU Chao

2018, 28(1): 143-148. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.024

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A definition of safety behavior management was put forward on the basis of both the theories of behavioral science and the methods of safety management science. Its connotation and mechanism were analyzed. The purpose was to eliminate people's unsafe behavior, to prevent accidents from the source and to achieve human safety. From five aspects of the organizational activities, personnel behavior, effect evaluation, feedback mechanism and safety culture, a "five-in-one" model was built for safety behavior management. The relationships among four behaviors including individual, organizational, safe and unsafe behavior in the model were deeply interpreted. The basic, regulating and missionary functions of the model were expounded, and its theoretical layer, practice layer and induction layer were explained. The validity of the model was evaluated. The model was applied to an especially major traffic accident. The causes of the accident were analyzed and the countermeasures were put forward. The result shows that the model provides a new way for safety behavior management, which provides specific methods of behavior management such as feedback regulation and forms an accident analysis method characterized by combining internal and external reasons.

Prediction of safety-civilized measure cost for fabricated building project based on RS-LSSVM

LIU Mingqiang, LI Yingpan, CHENXiao, WANG Fang, LI Ruige, LI Xiaozhe

2018, 28(1): 149-154. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.025

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To get accurate prediction of the safety-civilized measure cost for fabricated building project, a method based on the combination of RS and LSSVM was developed. For developing the method, the measurement factors were ascertained by attribute reduction algorithm in RS according to the features of fabricated building project. A LSSVM was introduced and a RS-LSSVM model was built. The method based on RS-LSSVM was applied to a number of projects in pilot urban agglomeration as an example. The data on these projects were input into the model for training and simulation to verify the method. As the case study shows, under the condition of small-sample case and multi-dimensional nonlinear factors, in comparison with the conventional methods such as the multivariant linear regression and BP neural network method, the proposed method works more efficiently, and can give calculation results more closely conforming to the reality.

Regional distribution of safety risk in China outbound tourism

XIE Chaowu, ZHANG Jun, CHEN Yanying

2018, 28(1): 155-160. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.026

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This study aims to explore the regional distribution of safety risk in China outbound tourism. 326 outbound tourism safety risk warning cases published by China National Tourism Administration from 2006 to 2013 were used as research data. A case data base was built and a cross-table analysis and an optimal scale analysis were carried out to examine the correlations between regional variables and safety risk events and risk factors in outbound tourism. The study found that there are strong correlations between risk factors, risk events and outbound areas, which means the main outbound areas of Chinese tourists have specific risk factors and risk events, and that differentiating regional types and taking precautions against the risks should become the basic measure to promote the development of China's outbound tourism.

Variable weight variable fuzzy tourism safety early warning considering regret behavior

LUO Jingfeng, LI Dengfeng

2018, 28(1): 161-166. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.027

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To cover the shortage that conventional early warning method didn't take evaluator behavior or defect of constant weights method into account, a variable weight variable fuzzy early warning method considering regret behavior was presented. For developing the method, variable weight vectors of early warning sample were constructed on the basis of both the sample data and the constant weight vectors. Then, initial weight was chosen as the reference point, and the variable weight vectors were transformed into the regret values and rejoice values relative to the reference point, and the variable weights were adjusted according to the regret value and rejoice value. Next, the rank feature values of early warning samples were calculated with the aid of the set pair analysis-variable fuzzy model. Again, grade of early warning and threshold were determined using the 2-tuple linguistic method. Finally, the method was used for analyzing a certain rural tourism destination taken as an example. This research shows the early warning results obtained by using the method accord closely with the actual situation.

A model for dynamic risk calculation of urban gas pipeline

YANG Yongsheng, ZHONG Shaobo, YU Zhichen, LI Yaoxuan, HUANG Quanyi

2018, 28(1): 167-172. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.028

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To effectively evaluate and timely control the leakage risk of urban gas pipeline, the paper was aimed at building a dynamic risk model based on BN and GIS technology. A fault tree (FT) model was built initially to analyze the leakage accident systematically, subsequently the FT model was mapped into a BN considering the dynamism of service time and human interference to calculate dynamic probabilities of gas pipeline leakage. In addition, the severity of the consequence of the gas pipeline leakage was assigned automatically by the GIS spatial analysis. Finally, a dynamic risk model of urban gas pipeline was built by combining dynamic probabilities and severity of leakage, and the effectiveness of the model was also validated through a case study of the gas pipeline system in a certain area. The results illustrate that this model can calculate and visualize the risk of gas pipeline leakage dynamically considering the effects of both time and emergency events on the leakage.

Organization optimization decision making model for emergency evacuation of overstocked ships in restricted waters

LIU Qing, YIN Tongle, WANG Lei, RONG Minmin

2018, 28(1): 173-178. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.029

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The paper was aimed at facilitating the balance between the loss of long-term shipping backlog in restricted waters and the cost needed for emergency evacuation organization. A multi objective optimization model with minimum cost and backlog losses was built after considering the actual demands of the shipping backlog emergency evacuation organization, and the constraints of water safety objective. The model was verified by the example of the emergency evacuation organization of the ship backlog in the Three Gorges Dam. The GA was applied to get the emergency evacuation organization strategies in this restricted water. Results of this study demonstrate that the multi-objective optimization model can provide different emergency evacuation organization optimization schemes for decision-makers different in risk preference.

Evacuation route planning model based on toxic injury index

LIU Huilin, SHEN Fei

2018, 28(1): 179-184. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.030

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In toxic gas leakage accidents, the spread of harmful substances has a significant impact on the evacuees' route choice behavior. In view of this fact, a new model was built for planning evacuation routes. The minimum damage to evacuees was taken as the target of evacuation process planning. Discretization improvements were made on the formula of toxic load. The toxicity injury indexes for various evacuation route sections, such as the toxic load value, the probability of death, were calculated by using the Gauss gas diffusion model on the basis of the information on the position shown in the evacuation toad network graph, so as to select the optimal evacuation route. The model was applied to an assumed ammonia-leakage accident. The research results show that due to the difference in the toxic gas concentration distribution, an evacuation scheme resulting in a shorter walking distance, is likely to lead to a higher damage probability, and that in order to reduce evacuees' damage and casualty, the emergency-evacuation process needs an accurate guide based on the model.

Study and application of architecture method and technology of urban safety space

YUAN Hongyong, SU Guofeng, FU Ming

2018, 28(1): 185-190. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.031

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In order to improve the urban comprehensive service function and security level, and achieve a virtuous circle of urban human settlements, for the spatio-temporal continuing urban safety space including the public space with functions of urban operation and disaster prevention and the exclusive space of social unit in the daily life, an architecture theory of urban safety space was advanced, in which the emergency, the object of disaster, and contingency management were involved. A construction technology of urban safety space including urban public space comprehensive prevention and control system and social exclusive space security system, through the monitoring system by internet of things, risk evaluation and precision management, and the innovation of public safety management and service model was also developed and applied to Hefei city. The results show that the theory advanced and the technology developed by the authors integrate the functions of safety operation perception, dynamic risk monitoring and early warning, decision-making and command, and unified scheduling and effectiveness evaluation for urban public space, and can be used to achieve the ability of independent security and defense for social exclusive space and to promote the transformation of urban safety mode from the passive response to the active guidance.

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