Abstract: To cover the shortage that conventional early warning method didn't take evaluator behavior or defect of constant weights method into account, a variable weight variable fuzzy early warning method considering regret behavior was presented. For developing the method, variable weight vectors of early warning sample were constructed on the basis of both the sample data and the constant weight vectors. Then, initial weight was chosen as the reference point, and the variable weight vectors were transformed into the regret values and rejoice values relative to the reference point, and the variable weights were adjusted according to the regret value and rejoice value. Next, the rank feature values of early warning samples were calculated with the aid of the set pair analysis-variable fuzzy model. Again, grade of early warning and threshold were determined using the 2-tuple linguistic method. Finally, the method was used for analyzing a certain rural tourism destination taken as an example. This research shows the early warning results obtained by using the method accord closely with the actual situation.

Key words: regret behavior, variable weight, variable fuzzy, tourism safety, early warning, 2-tuple linguistic method