Calculation method of initiating event frequency based on multilevel flow modeling

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.020

Abstract

Abstract: Traditional fault tree analysis relies on the experience of the analysis, which makes the assessment results relatively subjective. In order to solve this problem, MFM is used to simulate the actual flow to improve the calculation method of initiating event frequency in chemical process QRA. Firstly, the chemical process is modeled by MFM platform, and then a fault tree is established according to the causal paths reasoning through the MFMSuite software. Finally, the frequency of the top event is calculated according to the logical sequence of the events and the frequency of the initiating event is determined. The method is applied to a heat exchange step in the production process of hydrogen cyanide. The research shows that this method can use the causal paths to deduce the fault tree for the heat exchange process, and that compared with the traditional methods, the result obtained by using the method developed by the authors is more objective.

Key words: chemical processes, quantitative risk assessment(QRA), multilevel flow modeling (MFM), initiating event, fault tree analysis

CLC Number:

X928.03

HU Xinsheng, WU Zongzhi, ZHANG Yu, WANG Rujun, DUO Yingquan. Calculation method of initiating event frequency based on multilevel flow modeling[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(1): 118-123.

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