Failure probability analysis of shale gas wellhead devices based on FTA-BN model

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.04.015

Abstract

Abstract: Failure probability analysis model of shale gas wellhead devices, a combination of FTA and BN, was established in order to study the failure. Firstly, a fault tree was developed based on the root cause analysis of wellhead device failure. Secondly, the failure tree was mapped into a BN. Secondly, BN model was modified in terms of polymorphism and uncertainty. Finally, the failure probability of wellhead devices was predicted and the key failure-caused factors were identified by using the two-way reasoning of BN. The results show that the failure probability of wellhead device is 1.31×10^-2and the key factors that lead to the failure are incorrect operation, aging of seal packing and bolt loosening, and the failure probability can be increased by 3×10^-3after BN model is modified.

Key words: shale gas, wellhead device, fault tree analysis (FTA), Bayesian networks (BN), failure probability

CLC Number:

X937

WANG Wenhe, DONG Chuanfu, LIU Linjing, LI Wei, MI Hongfu, SHEN Kuiling. Failure probability analysis of shale gas wellhead devices based on FTA-BN model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(4): 89-95.

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