Analysis of failure probability of vertical tank under debris flow impact

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.11.010

Abstract

Abstract: In order to assess the risk of Natech accident triggered by debris flow and quantitatively analyze the influence of debris flow impact on vertical storage tank, a simplified mechanical model was built for the tank under the action of debris flow. The failure modes were divided into four categories: bending failure, tank instability, tank floating and tank slipping. Based on this classification, four groups of limit state equations were constructed. On the basis of Bayesian network and the reliability theory, a calculation method of failure probability for tank was worked out. The method was used to analyze and calculate an accident scenario. The results show that the failure probability of the tank is 81.19%, and that increasing filling rate of tank and reducing the aspect ratio of large storage tanks can prevent the accident in areas prone to the debris flow.

Key words: debris flow impact, tank failure, failure mode, Bayesian network, failure probability

CLC Number:

X937

CHEN Guohua, ZENG Tao, YANG Yunfeng, TIAN Zhen. Analysis of failure probability of vertical tank under debris flow impact[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(11): 55-60.

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